关键词: 人口结构 , 总负担系数 , 线性支出系统（ELES） , 消费结构

Abstract: Using the Extended Linear Expenditure System (ELES), this paper analyzed the impact of aging on the structure of residents consumption though 31 provinces in urban of China. The results showed that: (1) with the deepen degree of aging, households would spend more on basic living expenses, especially on food, clothing and health care based on the increasing total dependency ratios; (2) although the Chinese residents consumption structure upgraded with more expenses on entertainment culture and education and others in the future, the increasing social burden coefficient caused by aging was likely to substitute the consumption; (3) the optimization structure of the future consumption should increase the consumption for durable goods, transportation, communication and entertainment, which would improve the residents potential consumption.

Key words: demographic structure , total burden coefficient , ELES, consumption structure