Table of Content

16 January 2011, Volume 31 Issue 1

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CHINA'S MACRO-ECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND FORECAST: 2010—2011——CHINA'S MACRO-ECONOMY UNDER LIQUIDITY RECLAMATION AND EFFECT OF THE NEW PLAN

Institute of Economics Research of Renmin University of China

2011, (1):  5-17. 

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In the year 2010,China's macro-economy has stepped into an orbit of topping out from a high level,economic normalization;high prices and structure optimization.In the year 2011,on the one hand,China's macro-economy will follow the economic operation logic of 2010,while on the other hand the factors such as an overall re-orientation of the monetary policy,the external condition change and the operation of the Twelfth Five-Year Plan have decided that the Chinese macro-economy of 2011 will appear complex yet stable.This paper uses models to forecast China's macro-economic index,and puts forward corresponding policy suggestions.

DUAL ECONOMY, LEWISIAN TURNING POINT AND THE FOREIGN TRADE DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY OF CHINA

TONG Jia-dong, ZHOU Yan

2011, (1):  18-26. 

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This paper analyses the long-term issue of migrant labor scarcity in China.After reviewing the Lewis model and examining the evidence from the labor market,the paper argues that migrant labor scarcity is a temporary phenomenon resulted from the fluctuation of the relative real income,uprising prices of farm products,increasing urban living cost and unstable exportation of industrial products.The reassessment also indicates that the size of migrant labor poor is about a hundred million.These may imply the Lewisian turning point has not arrived yet and the transition of dual economy is already a long-period process in China.

RESEARCH ON THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN GRAIN PRICES AND CPI IN CHINA

LI Xin-zhen

2011, (1):  27-32. 

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On the basis of monthly data of wholesale price index of grain prices and CPI from January 1998 to October 2010,this paper analyzes the relationship between grain prices and CPIs using qualitative and quantitative methods.The empirical result shows that long-term and short-term relationships exist between grain prices and CPIs.In the long run,every 1% increase of grain price will result in a 0.336% increase of CPI.In the short run,the grain price has a one-stage-lagged influence on CPI,and CPI has a three-stage-lagged influence on grain price.Considering the possible influence factors of international effect,supply effect,market expectation effect and policy effect,the grain price in China will continue increasing in recent months,but not significantly.

AGGREGATE DEMAND STRUCTURE ADJUSTMENT AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT PATTERN TRANSFORMATION

SHI Jin-chuan, HUANG Liang-hao

2011, (1):  33-49. 

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According to the normal pattern of the aggregate demand structure all over the world from 1970 to 2008,the demand structure of China is extremely different,with its high rate of capital formation and low rate of consumption expenditure,which is completely related with China's extensive pattern of economic growth.This paper analyses the mechanism between the aggregate demand structure and the economic development pattern in the view of structuralism.It's concluded that China should establish endogenous development strategy and labor-enforced income distribution policy in order to optimize the aggregate demand structure and transform the economic development pattern.

THEORETICAL MODEL OF INSTITUTIONAL BEING POOR: POLICY DISCRIMINATION AND THE ASYMMETRY OF INSTITUTIONAL RETURN AND COST

DONG Xiao-dan, WEN Tie-jun

2011, (1):  50-58. 

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By developing a model of institutional discriminatory policy for diversified benefited groups,we argue that institutional return and cost is asymmetric and the asymmetry comes from the institutional structure.Furthermore,as the institutional cost is to be transferred layer by layer,an unlimited pursuit of maximizing returns by the institutional dominant will not only lead to ever widening gaps between the rich and the poor and to social unrest,but also to negative feedback of ecology and environment,which will severely challenge the security and sustainability of human beings.

REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT, REAL ESTATE LOAN AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN CHINA

KUANG Wei-da

2011, (1):  59-68. 

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Using the database of 35 large and medium cities from 1996 through 2007 in China,this paper investigates the interplay between real estate investment,real estate loan and economic growth.The results show that the impact of the economic growth upon the real estate investment is greater than that of the latter upon the former.Thereby,the variation of the economic growth will give rise to the dramatic volatility of the real estate investment,but not vice versa.Secondly,the impact of the real estate purchasing on the economic growth is greater than that of real estate development investment.Meanwhile,the real estate loan is more important for the developers than for real estate purchasers.Thirdly,the impact of the economic growth on the real estate loan is greater than that of the latter on the former.Therefore,the decline of the economic growth will cause real estate loan crunch.Fourthly,the influence of the real estate investment on the economic growth is greater than that of the real estate loan,but the impact of the economic growth on the real estate loan is greater than that of the real estate investment.Therefore,the economic depression will cut down the real estate loan,but will have no effect on the real estate investment.Lastly,the impact of the real estate price on the real estate loan is greater than that of the economic growth and interest rate.Accordingly,the real estate price depreciation will depress the real estate loan and lead to default risk and financial crisis.This requires the government to prevent the real estate price from increase too sharply.

THE REFORM OF RMB EXCHANGE RATE MECHANISM UNDER EXTERNAL APPRECIATION AND INTERNAL DEPRECIATION

ZHANG Ming

2011, (1):  69-76. 

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The phenomenon of RMB's external appreciation and internal depreciation has aroused significant attention since the end of 2006.This paper tries to explain the phenomenon through 3 perspectives,i.e.purchasing power parity,Balassa-Samuelson effect,and quantitative easing and imported inflation.What RMB exchange rate mechanism should the Chinese government choose under the background of softening USD? First,the strengths and weaknesses of various mechanisms are analyzed.Then,a comprehensive appraisal framework is established to give a holistic evaluation.The result shows that the best choice for Chinese government is to transit from the current mechanism to BBC gradually.

ENERGY EFFICIENCY AND FUNDING FOR DEMAND SIDE MANAGEMENT (DSM) IN CHINA: MECHANISM DESIGN AND POLICY RESTRUCTURE

YU Yong-zhen

2011, (1):  77-86. 

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DSM is one of the best and most practical policy tools for China to balance environmental protection and economic growth.However,the bottleneck lies in the lack of long-term,stable,sufficient and gradually increasing funds to flow into DSM projects.The author re-designs the practical "system benefit charge(SBC)" policy which will provide long-term and stable funding for DSM,aiming at facilitating the financial support from the banking sector and the capital market.The author also investigates the possibility of DSM funding from CDM projects.SBC is the best way to boost stable and sufficient long-term funding for DSM in China today.The current low inflation rate and natural resource price are favorable to the expedition of the implementation of SBC and DSM development.With regard to the uneven development,China needs to design cooresponding policies to offset the impact in different areas,such as tax reduction and fiscal subsides.It is time for China to develop a definite and clear target and timetable to implement DSM,which will give the public and the enterprises a definite and clear expectation for the future.The government should publicize a clear and integrated DSM development plan and policy outline in the near,medium,and long term run.

ENERGY RESTRAINT, TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT: AN ENDOGENOUS GROWTH MODEL BASED ON THE PROMOTION OF INTERMEDIATE PRODUCTS' QUALITY

XIAO Wen, TANG Zhao-xi

2011, (1):  87-94. 

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By developing the method of vertical innovation,this paper constructs a four-sector endogenous growth model with the restraint of energy depletion to study the mechanism with which the energy resource depletion and R & D affect the long-run economic growth.The authors solve the social optimum equilibrium of this economic system and discuss the conditions for the existence of balanced growth path,and perform some comparative static analysis to examine the BGP of in what degree the variables and parameters' changes will affect the long-term output growth rate and the energy consumption growth rate.Finally,we draw conclusions and put forward relevant policy recommendations.

THE EXPLORATION OF RUSSIA'S ECONOMIC MODERNIZATION IN THE POST-CRISIS ERA

GUAN Xue-ling, LIU Ke-jia

2011, (1):  95-103. 

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This paper analyzes the historical background of Russia's economic modernization,strategic layout and constraining factors in the post-crisis era.On the basis of defining the meaning of economic modernization,this article analyzes the historical background under which Russian government restarted the process of economic modernization,and then points out the strategic layout with which the Russian government wants to achieve the objective of modernization.At last,this paper analyzes the main factors influencing and restricting the modernization process of Russia.The results show that the top-down modernization of the Russian economy will experience a long and arduous process.