Abstract: On the basis of monthly data of wholesale price index of grain prices and CPI from January 1998 to October 2010,this paper analyzes the relationship between grain prices and CPIs using qualitative and quantitative methods.The empirical result shows that long-term and short-term relationships exist between grain prices and CPIs.In the long run,every 1% increase of grain price will result in a 0.336% increase of CPI.In the short run,the grain price has a one-stage-lagged influence on CPI,and CPI has a three-stage-lagged influence on grain price.Considering the possible influence factors of international effect,supply effect,market expectation effect and policy effect,the grain price in China will continue increasing in recent months,but not significantly.

Key words: grain prices, CPI, cointegration analysis

摘要： 本文利用1998年1月—2010年10月的月度CPI数据和粮食批发价格指数对粮食价格和CPI的关系进行了定性和定量分析。实证结果表明,两者之间存在长期和短期关系,从长期来看,粮食价格每上涨1%会使CPI上涨0.336%;从短期来看,粮价对CPI有滞后1期的影响,CPI对粮价有滞后3期的影响。综合考虑影响粮食价格的国际效应、供给效应、市场预期效应和政策效应,未来几个月我国粮价将有所上涨,但涨幅不会很大。

关键词: 粮食价格, CPI, 协整分析