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    16 February 2024, Volume 44 Issue 2
    Vertical Supervision,Local Selective Land Supply and Industrial Structure Green Transformation
    ZHOU Yulong, LIU Yuha, iSONG Yue
    2024, 44(2):  1-16. 
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    The effective execution by the local government is the key to improve the implementation performance of the central governments development strategy,and effective supervision by the central government is a crucial link The central inspection of environmental protection is a major institutional innovation of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council to promote the construction of ecological civilization and environmental protection work,marking the trend of Chinas ecological environment supervision system towards the same responsibility of the Party and the government,and it has become a normal regulatory tool for the central government to urge local environmental protection responsibilities
    This paper fully investigates the direct role of local government behavior in the impact of the central inspection of environmental protection,as well as the impact of environmental regulation on the incremental behavior of new enterprises or local land supply strategy From the perspective of local government behavior strategies,this paper empirically examines the influence of central environmental protection inspection,a vertical supervision behavior,on the selective land supply strategy of local government and its mechanism This paper manually compiles the unique textual data of the notification results of the central inspection of environmental protection,as well as the city panel data of urban land supply by industry,to measure the differences in the degree of policy impact and industrial structure transformation among different cities The generalized differenceindifferences method is used to estimate the causal effect of the central inspection on local governments selective land supply strategy This not only effectively corrects the measurement bias and endogeneity issues,but also estimates the marginal effects of the central environmental inspection on local selective land supply strategy
    The research indicates that the central inspection of environmental protection will urge local governments to reduce the supply of pollutionintensive industrial land and increase the supply of clean industrial land,thus promoting the green transformation of regional industrial structure Mechanism analysis shows that the central inspection of environmental protection have a heterogeneous impact on urban industrial land supply strategy through the career development incentive mechanism of local leaders and the industrial transformation capability mechanism That is,when local officials are faced with strong promotion incentives,central environmental protection inspectors can significantly reduce the supply of pollutionintensive industrial land by local governments The stronger the local industrial transformation capability,the stronger the motivation of the government to promote the green transformation of industrial structure The conclusion provides the following policy implications With the commitment of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality and highquality economic development by the Chinese government,it is necessary to seize the opportunity of the driving role of environmental protection supervision on industrial structure upgrading,make good use of the policy tool of biased land supply,coordinate industrial policy and environmental policy and formulate local policies for cities at different stages of development to more effectively promote the green transformation of industrial structure
    Improved Government Environmental Information Disclosure Favors the Effectiveness of Environmental Governance
    SHI Peihao1, WU Chuanqing1, HUANG Qinghua2
    2024, 44(2):  17-30. 
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    This study leverages the implementation of the “Environmental Air Quality Standards”, designed to augment environmental information transparency,as a quasinatural experiment The research draws upon the pool of publicly listed companies on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges spanning from 2010 to 2020 as the focal sample and employs a multiple difference model to empirically scrutinize the impact of macrolevel regional environmental information disclosure on microlevel corporate environmental governanceThe findings of this study are as follows:
    First,the study reveals that an increase in governmental pressure for firms to disclose environmental information serves as an incentive for companies to adopt environmental governance measures,consequently leading to a reduction in corporate pollutant emissions The empirical model employed in this study satisfies the parallel trend assumption,justifying the use of a differenceindifferences model for empirical testing Furthermore,the placebo test method is applied to confirm the nonrandomness of the research findings Additionally,instrumental variable methods,Heckman models,and PSMDID techniques are utilized to address potential endogeneity concerns,while robustness tests support the reliability of the primary regression results Second,mechanism analysis illustrates that governmentmandated environmental information disclosure enhances corporate environmental governance through two channels:strengthening regional environmental law enforcement constraints and reinforcing public environmental supervision Third,the effectiveness of government environmental information disclosure in promoting governance is shown to be weakened in regions facing significant fiscal pressure but strengthened when firms receive government environmental subsidies Lastly,further investigation indicates that firms response to government environmental information disclosure constraints significantly enhances their innovation capacity,quality,operational efficiency,and financial performance,ultimately achieving a “winwin” outcome In conclusion,this study enriches and expands the theoretical research in the field of institutional economics,particularly concerning macropolicies and microlevel firm behavior It provides valuable insights that support the institutional foundations hypothesis proposed by Acemoglu et al (2005) and offers beneficial references for stimulating firms enthusiasm towards environmental governance and facilitating the transition to a green,lowcarbon,and efficient development model
    The Driving Force of the Transformation of China's Residents'Consumption Structure:Income Effect or Relative Price Effect
    YU Ze, WU Ke
    2024, 44(2):  31-48. 
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    China has now shifted from the stage of highspeed growth to the stage of highquality development,and promoting the quality  improvement and upgrading of consumption are inevitable requirements for the highquality development of the economy In the framework of structural transformation,this paper empirically investigates the dominant driving force of the transformation of China‘s residents’ consumption structure from 1992 to 2017 This paper first uses the share of residents‘consumption in three sectors of agriculture,manufacturing and services to measure the structural transformation of residents’consumption,and distinguishes the definition of consumption into final consumption expenditure and consumption value added,and then conducts empirical analyses using data on China’s residents personal consumption expenditure and inputoutput data The results show that different definitions and measurement methods of consumption will lead to different conclusions: under the definition of final consumption expenditure,the income effect is the dominant force driving the upgrading of China‘s residents’ consumption structure; under the definition of consumption value added,the same conclusion is obtained if the consumption value added is constructed by using the method of the circulation cost ratio,and if the method of the expenditure approach to GDP is utilised,then the contribution of relative price effect to China‘s consumption upgrading after 2002 is greatly enhanced,implying that the main driving force for the upgrading of residents consumption structure is gradually shifted from the income effect to the relative price effect
    This paper provides a demandside perspective for the study of structural transformation at the theoretical level,and at the applied level,it helps to clarify the main driving force of China’s residents‘ consumption upgrading and then provides useful references for quality improvement and upgrading of consumption in the stage of highquality development
    The income effect is the dominant driving force for the upgrading of China's residents'consumption structure,which reflects the important fact that the rapid growth of China's residents’ income has led to the continuous improvement of the consumption level Along with China‘s economy going into the stage of highquality development,to promote the upgrading of the consumption structure of residents still need to focus on the role of the income effect Because only when the income level increases,people will reduce the demand for agricultural and sideline products and other basic subsistence consumption,and increase the demand for services and other developmental and enjoymentoriented consumption In addition,the relative price effect is rising in importance to the upgrading of the consumption structure of the residents This means that accelerating the transformation and upgrading of the consumption structure of the residents requires not only continuing to increase residents’ income on the demand side,but also incentivising technological innovation and capital accumulation on the supply side,upgrading the level and quality of the supply system,so that the supply can better adapt to and create new demand,and leading to a positive interaction between supply and demand through supplyside structural reform
    Identification of Influencing Factors of Housing Price Divergence in Different Cities
    CHEN Xiaoliang1, CHEN Kan2, WANG Zhaorui3, XIAO Zhengyan2, 4
    2024, 44(2):  49-64. 
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    Since 2013, the growth rate of housing prices in Chinas Tier 1, Tier 2, and Tier 3 cities has exhibited a clear trend of differentiation, and “cityspecific policies” have gradually become the mainstay of housing price regulation To implement “cityspecific policies”,it is necessary to accurately identify the primary factors that affect the differentiation of housing prices in different cities This paper comprehensively employs machine learning methods such as XGBoost and SHAP value interpretability methods, based on panel data of 70 large and mediumsized cities nationwide from 2009 to 2019, to calculate and analyze the primary driving factors behind the multiround differentiation of housing prices in Tier 1, Tier 2, and Tier 3 cities The research results indicate that:First, expected factors played a crucial driving role during the multiround differentiation of housing prices;Second, monetary policy itself is not the primary driving factor of housing price differentiation, but it can cause housing price differentiation by affecting expectations;Third, demand factors and supply factors themselves are not the primary driving factors of housing price differentiation, but they can also cause housing price differentiation by affecting expectations
    In view of this, the key to “cityspecific policies” in different cities is to stabilize the publics expectations of housing price trends based on their own situation, starting from the demand side or the supply side For Tier 1 cities, due to the continuous influx of population outside the city and relatively scarce land supply, they are in a state of relatively tight housing supply, which also makes residents expected housing prices show an upward trend To stabilize housing price expectations, it is necessary to consider appropriately increasing housing supply under the premise of controlling land costs, so as to weaken the expected housing price increase caused by the imbalance between housing supply and demand In addition, government should continue to improve the housing rental market to alleviate the pressure on the housing buying and selling market, and further weaken the expected housing price increase in Tier 1 cities For Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities, since these cities often face the situation of population outflow, residents expected housing prices will decline In order to stabilize housing price expectations, it is necessary to further upgrade urban infrastructure, improve education, medical and environmental quality, and improve residents housing purchase demand At the same time, Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities with relatively abundant housing supply should also formulate more scientific and reasonable talent introduction plans to attract population inflows, so as to further stabilize housing price expectations
    The marginal contribution of this paper is reflected in two aspects First, although some literature attempts to explore the primary reasons for the differentiation of housing prices in different cities, traditional methods such as panel regression models are mainly used Also,the number of factors that can be examined and the identified nonlinear relationships are relatively limited Machine learning methods can better overcome the shortcomings of traditional methods and more accurately identify the primary factors affecting housing price differentiation Second, although the central government has been calling for “cityspecific policies” in recent years, the academic communitys research on the reasons for the differentiation of housing prices in different cities is not yet clear Existing literature mainly studies whether a certain factor has a significant impact on housing price differentiation, and cannot clearly compare the relative importance of different factors This paper uses SHAP value interpretability method to directly rank the relative importance of various influencing factors, to identify the primary factors affecting housing price differentiation and provide more clear decisionmaking references for real estate regulation and control
    The Local Government Debt and Corporate Investment“from Real to Virtual”
    CHANG Zhongze1, LI Hanxiong2, MAO Pei3
    2024, 44(2):  65-80. 
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    How to understand the impact of local government debt in the development of the national economy is the focus of current academic and government departments This paper uses the Chinese listed companies data and prefecture level cities local government debt data from 2009 to 2018,and empirically examines the impact and mechanism of local government debt on corporate entity investment and financial investment from the perspective of financing structure We draw the following conclusions
    First,the expansion of local government debt lead to a decline in nonstate listed companies entity investment and a rise in financial investment While there was no significant impact on the investment of stateowned listed company This means that with the expansion of the scale of local government debt,the investment of nonstateowned listed companies has shown a trend of “deviate from real to virtual”
    Second,that the impact of local government debt expansion on corporate investment has obvious regional,industry and individual heterogeneity At the regional level,the increase of local government debt has a greater impact on promoting the enterprise financial investment in the eastern region,and has a more obvious inhibitory effect on the entity investment in the central and western regions At the industry level,the increase in local government debt will lead to an increase in the financial investment of nonstateowned enterprises in infrastructure construction related industries,while the entity investment of nonstateowned enterprises in other industries will decline At the individual level,the preferential tax policies will lead to a higher increase in financial investment of nonstateowned enterprises,while the enterprises entity investment that do not enjoy the preferential tax policies will decline more
    Third,the rise in local government debt has led to changes in the financing structure of non-state-owned listed companies,while the financing structure of stateowned enterprises has changed little It is verified that the change of financing structure is the potential impact mechanism that lead to the corporate investment “deviate from real to virtual”
    Fourth,from a development perspective,on the one hand,financial investment yields will decline as local government debt expands,so the longterm and continuous increase of financial investment is not conducive to the operation of enterprises and the development of the national economy On the other hand,local government debt funds invested in infrastructure and peoples livelihood can alleviate the decline in entity investment,which indicating that good infrastructure is conducive to the development of the real economy
    Finally,according to the research conclusions,this paper puts forward some targeted policy recommendations It can be summarized into three aspects:Firstly,we should focus on controlling the scale of local government debt within a reasonable range,prevent the disorderly expansion of debt,and optimize the investment direction of debt funds,so that the government debt funds can better play a positive role in driving public investment and industrial development Secondly,further improve the information disclosure system of listed companies so that investors can correctly understand the potential risks At the same time,attract more types of investors to undertake local government deb Thirdly,government departments can adopt more precise industrial policies,create a good policy environment conducive to enterprises active participation in entity investment,guide social capital into the real field,and promote the longterm healthy and sustainable development of the national economy

    Labor Market Friction,Endogenous Firm Entry and Macroeconomic Fluctuations
    ZHOU Huijun1, ZHAO Fuyang2, FU Chunyang3
    2024, 44(2):  81-96. 
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    In 2022,the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China emphasized the importance of reinforcing employment priority policies,underscoring its pivotal role in the subsequent phases of Chinas economic and social development This paper introduces labor market frictions and firms entryexit mechanism into a DSGE model,examining the impact of the epidemic on Chinas macroeconomic fluctuations through four different forms of labor market shocks The results indicate that:Firstly,shocks on the labor supply or demand sides could result in a significant decrease in overall output,consumption,and the number of enterprises The size of individual enterprises contracts during the shock on supply side and expands during the shock on demand side Secondly,the simulation results indicate that even the shock last only one quarter,macroeconomic fluctuations could persist for several years,raising concerns about the speed of macroeconomic recovery after shortterm shocks Thirdly,the public health emergency shock could initially lead to an increase in unemployment,then transmit to the enterprise side,causing the exit of small and mediumsized enterprises This in turn,further suppresses labor demand,forming a positive feedback loop Under the mutual reinforcement of the two mechanisms,the shortterm shock could bring about sustained effect Finally,this paper conducts policy simulations on the baseline model,analyzing the mitigating effects of relief policies such as social security benefits and credit support during the shock
    The potential contributions of this paper are reflected in four aspects:Firstly,this paper studies the relationship between Chinas labor market and the macroeconomic fluctuations in a DSGE framework,which is neglected by the domestic macroeconomic studies due to the longterm stability of the unemployment rate Secondly,through the inclusion of firms entryexit mechanism,this paper delineates the survival challenges faced by small and mediumsized enterprises during public health emergency shock Thirdly,by introducing four different labor market shocks,the paper analyzes the specific channels through which the epidemic affects the labor market and the macroeconomy Lastly,this paper demonstrates that labor market frictions and the bankruptcy of small and mediumsized enterprises could form a positive feedback loop,collectively prolonging the impact of shortterm shocks,providing theoretical basis for policy measures such as stabilizing employment and supporting small and mediumsized enterprises
    Technological Progress,Anti-Baumol's Cost Disease and Manufacturing Share
    ZHANG Peili, XU Qizhou
    2024, 44(2):  97-116. 
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    In the face of China's manufacturing share a rapid decline since 2006,the “14th FiveYear Plan” clearly put forward to maintain the stability of the share of manufacturing industry,while building a modernized industrial system must accelerate the implementation of the innovationdriven development strategy,to achieve a high level of scientific and technological selfreliance and selfimprovement To this end,to maintain the stability of the share of manufacturing,and innovationdriven together must be adhered to at the same time However,according to Baumols theory of unbalanced growth,technological progress will lead to an increase in the share of the service industry and a decrease in the proportion of the manufacturing industry,which makes Chinas adherence to the innovation drive and maintaining the stability of the share of the manufacturing industry face a theoretical paradox For this reason,this paper,based on the real needs in Chinas socialist modernization,tries to provide explanations and empirical verification for breaking the theoretical paradox of technological progress and maintaining the stability of the share of manufacturing industry at the same time
    This paper compared the conditions of Baumol cost disease,based on the fact that the total factor productivity growth rate of the service industry has been higher than the total factor productivity growth rate of the manufacturing industry,and pointed out that there is an antiBaumol cost disease phenomenon in China,that is,there is a Baumol cost disease in the field of manufacturing We revised the Baumol theoretical model and found the root cause of the decline in the share of manufacturing industry in China from the perspective of technological progress We conclude that only by accelerating the technical progress of the manufacturing industry and technological transformation to improve the total factor productivity of the manufacturing industry can realize the share of the manufacturing industry unchanged This puts forward a logically consistent theoretical explanation for the simultaneous realization of innovationdriven development and maintaining stability of the share of manufacturing industry
    The paper's empirical study using data from 17 manufacturing industries in the WIOD database from 20002014 finds that higher TFP growth rates can significantly increase the manufacturing share Controlling for the effects of other variables,every 1% increase in manufacturing TFP growth rate will increase the manufacturing share by 17% before 2011,and 056% higher after 2011 than before Heterogeneity analysis of hightech manufacturing and lowtech manufacturing further supports this conclusion One percent increase in the TFP growth rate of hightech manufacturing would increase the share of manufacturing by 23 percent,while an increase in the TFP growth rate of lowtech manufacturing would lead to only 135 percent increase The mechanism that affects the change in the share of manufacturing is that an increase in the level of TFP will improve the international competitiveness of manufacturing,and is empirically tested based on the relative comparative advantage of value added (RCA_VAX)
    Structural Demand Shock,Policy Independence,and Monetary-Fiscal Policy Coordination
    ZHANG Chengsi, TIAN Hanhui, WANG Chenxi
    2024, 44(2):  117-132. 
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    From 2020 to 2022,Chinas macroeconomy was significantly impacted by exogenous shocks The differences in output between contactintensive and noncontactintensive production sectors subtly revealed the asymmetric nature of the impact of exogenous shocks on different production sectors during this period This paper defines sectoral structural shocks as exogenous fluctuations affecting only a portion of production sectors in the economy The negative impact on China's macroeconomy during the mentioned period includes structural demand shocks to contactintensive sectorsThe effective use of macroeconomic policies to address these challenges is a matter of concern for academia and policy authorities
    The paper establishes a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with heterogeneity in household and production sectors We investigate how fiscal and monetary policies should be implemented and coordinated to effectively achieve the policy goals of “stabilizing employment and promoting consumption” under sectoral structural demand shocks We identifies the negative sequences of structural demand shocks experienced by contactintensive sectors during the mentioned period and subsequently utilize the model to analyze the effectiveness of different fiscal and monetary policy tools and coordination mechanisms
    We find that the emphasis of different policy tools varies:government consumption and enterprise subsidy policies are more effective in stabilizing employment,while transfer payments to households and personal income tax rate policies are more effective in promoting consumption Lowering policy rate can promote employment and consumption,while required reserve ratio is not an effective policy tool
    The paper also examines the “monetary independence” and “nonmonetary independence” fiscalmonetary policy coordination mechanisms Results show that the “monetary independence” mechanism,where fiscal and monetary policy do not depend on each other,is more efficient in reducing real interest rates compared to the “nonmonetary independence” mechanism,where monetary policy adjusts adaptively to fiscal policy
    The research conclusions have at least two implications for the future design of fiscal and monetary policies Firstly,the findings are applicable to general sectoral structural demand shocks,providing policy suggestions for future similar shocks Secondly,the results subtly suggest that enhancing the independence of monetary policy can improve the effectiveness of the monetaryfiscal policy mix Direct monetary accommodation to fiscal policy can subdue the effectiveness of policy mix

    Digital Platform-based Domestic Supply Chain:International Comptitiveness and Government Regulation
    XU Heng1, ZHANG Yilin2, LIU Yan3
    2024, 44(2):  133-150数字平台嵌入本国供应链:国际竞争力与政府规制. 
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    The stability of the supply chain plays an important role in its international competitiveness When the internal uncertainty of the supply chain increases or the external shock affects the node enterprises in the supply chain,if there is no sufficient information shared in the supply chain,the entire supply chain will fall into a stagnation state of low efficiency The development of the digital economy drives the digital technology to be applied in supply chains By embedding digital platforms into the supply chain,transaction information can be identifiable,helping node enterprises to cope with the uncertainty in the complex environment and thereby enhancing the overall competitiveness of the supply chain
    This article attempts to construct a theoretical model to analyze the competitive effect of the digital platform embedded in domestic supply chains,and examine the impact of digitalization and platformization of domestic supply chains in terms of competitiveness and welfare in the situation of international competition Results show that the embedding of the digital platform has dual impacts on the domestic supply chain On one hand,the integration of the digital platform helps to improve the transaction efficiency between the node enterprises in the domestic supply chain,which strengthens the overall competitiveness of the domestic supply chain,and thus improves the social welfare On the other hand,the node enterprises in the domestic supply chain may be technologically dependent on the digital platform,thus the platform has incentives to abuse its dominant market position,weakening the competitiveness of the domestic supply chain relative to its foreign counterpart
    Based on the research results,this article proposes the following implications for the digitalization and platformization of domestic supply chains in China
    First,we should strengthen the technological interface and spillover of deep integration between digital platforms and supply chains,and improve the transaction efficiency of supply chains driven by digitalization with high quality It is necessary to promote the digital transformation of the node enterprises in supply chains,with the help of the synergy from digital information,the network effect formed by digital platforms could be strengthened within the supply chain,increasing the joint profit of the digital platform and supply chain,which strengthens the motivation of their integration
    Second,we should cultivate a competitive environment in the market of digital platforms and prevent the social welfare in the supply chain transaction from being excessively extracted by the digital platform Effective competition policies can stimulate competitiveness in the market of digital platforms,and alleviate the problem of uneven or unreasonable distribution of welfare in the transactions of supply chain
    Third,we should promote the deep integration of the digital economy and the real economy from the perspective of the supply chain The improvement of international competitiveness of the supply chain includes the digitalization and platformization of the supply chain More importantly,it is necessary to achieve a deep and highquality integration of the digital economy and the real economy in terms of the supply chain system On one hand,digital technology can effectively overflow into supply chain transactions;on the other hand,international competitiveness can be strengthened through the technological enhancement of the supply chain