Abstract: This paper analyses the long-term issue of migrant labor scarcity in China.After reviewing the Lewis model and examining the evidence from the labor market,the paper argues that migrant labor scarcity is a temporary phenomenon resulted from the fluctuation of the relative real income,uprising prices of farm products,increasing urban living cost and unstable exportation of industrial products.The reassessment also indicates that the size of migrant labor poor is about a hundred million.These may imply the Lewisian turning point has not arrived yet and the transition of dual economy is already a long-period process in China.

Key words: migrant labor shortage, Lewisian turning point, labor surplus, dual economy, wage gap

摘要： 中国剩余劳动力的转移过程并非单向和线性的,而是由城乡相对实际收入导致的此消彼长过程。"民工荒"现象是在出口波动、农产品价格提高、城镇生活成本上升和城乡劳动力流动障碍等综合影响下出现的就业市场摩擦性现象,并不能说明刘易斯拐点的到来或中国剩余劳动力即将消失。理论测算表明,中国仍存在近1亿人的剩余劳动力需要转移,其二元经济转型仍是一个较长的过程,以劳动密集型产业为比较优势的经济发展格局并未改变。

关键词: 民工荒, 刘易斯拐点, 剩余劳动力, 二元经济, 工资差距