Economic Theory and Business Management ›› 2011, Vol. ›› Issue (1): 5-17.

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CHINA'S MACRO-ECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND FORECAST: 2010—2011——CHINA'S MACRO-ECONOMY UNDER LIQUIDITY RECLAMATION AND EFFECT OF THE NEW PLAN

Institute of Economics Research of Renmin University of China   

  1. Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China
  • Received:2010-12-12 Online:2012-02-21 Published:2011-01-16

2010—2011年中国宏观经济报告——流动性回收与新规划效应下的中国宏观经济

中国人民大学经济研究所   

  1. 中国人民大学, 北京, 100872
  • 基金资助:

    国家社会科学基金决策咨询项目09GJZ001的资助

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Abstract: In the year 2010,China's macro-economy has stepped into an orbit of topping out from a high level,economic normalization;high prices and structure optimization.In the year 2011,on the one hand,China's macro-economy will follow the economic operation logic of 2010,while on the other hand the factors such as an overall re-orientation of the monetary policy,the external condition change and the operation of the Twelfth Five-Year Plan have decided that the Chinese macro-economy of 2011 will appear complex yet stable.This paper uses models to forecast China's macro-economic index,and puts forward corresponding policy suggestions.

Key words: liquidity reclamation, effect of the new plan, China’s macro-economy

摘要： 2010年中国宏观经济步入了"高位回稳"、"经济常态化"、"价格偏高"、"结构良性化"的运行轨道。2011年中国宏观经济一方面延续了2010年经济运行的逻辑,另一方面将出现货币政策的全面转向、外部环境的变异以及"十二五"规划的全面启动等新因素,这决定了2011年中国宏观经济将呈现"复杂但却平稳"的态势。本文利用模型对于相关宏观经济指标进行了预测,并提出了相应的政策建议。

关键词: 流动性回收, 新规划效应, 中国宏观经济

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