关键词: 2035年发展目标, 潜在增长率, 国际经验测算

Abstract: The Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China set the longrange goal of reaching the level of moderately developed countries in GDP per capita by 2035. Therefore, measuring and answering whether and how to achieve the goal on schedule is of great significance for China to achieve the second centenary goal and to adhere to the “four selfconfidence”. Based on other economies experience of leapfroging or falling into the “middleincome trap”, this paper estimates the change of Chinas potential growth rate from 2021 to 2035. First, this paper simulates and sets the growth rate of major production factors in China according to the changes of major production factors of the economies that were in the same development stage of China and have leapfrogged or fallen into the “middleincome trap”. Second, using the growth accounting model of additional human capital to measure the potential growth rate of Chinas economy in the future under three different scenarios including baseline, optimism and pessimism, the possibility of Chinas 2035 development goal can be verified. Third, according to the contribution of the main factors to the potential growth rate, this paper puts forward the corresponding policy recommendations to achieve the 2035 development goal as scheduled.

Key words:  , 2035 development goal, potential growth rate, estimation of international experience