经济理论与经济管理 ›› 2014, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (1): 38-51.

• 理论探索 • 上一篇    下一篇

封闭经济约束与城乡居民
消费过度敏感性变动

 陈太明, 杜两省   

  1. 东北财经大学经济学院,大连116025
  • 收稿日期:2013-06-19 出版日期:2014-01-16 发布日期:2014-01-22
  • 作者简介:陈太明(1979—),男,辽宁铁岭人,东北财经大学经济学院副教授,经济学博士; 杜两省(1958—),男,山西临猗人,东北财经大学经济学院教授,经济学博士。
  • 基金资助:

    教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“经济开放、区域市场分割与居民消费过度敏感性差异:理论与实证”(11YJC790018);国家社会科学基金重大招标项目“转变经济增长方式的重点和难点:风险分析、控制系统和激励机制研究”(12&ZD067);辽宁省高等学校优秀人才支持计划(LNET)资助项目“贸易开放、经济波动与社会福利:理论、实证与对策”(WJQ2013022)

CLOSED-ECONOMY CONSTRAINTS AND CHANGE
 OF EXCESS SENSITIVITY OF URBAN AND RURAL CONSUMPTION

 CHEN  Tai-Ming, DU  Liang-Sheng   

  1. School of Economics, Dongbei University of Finance and Economics, Dalian, Liaoning 116025, China
  • Received:2013-06-19 Online:2014-01-16 Published:2014-01-22

摘要: 封闭经济约束为解释居民消费过度敏感性提供了来自经济一体化的新视角。本文利用1985—2007年中国省际城乡面板数据考察省级居民消费过度敏感性变动,以验证封闭经济约束假说是否适用于中国。本文研究发现:省级居民消费存在过度敏感性,但剥离全国层面消费和收入总体波动后,敏感性会稳健地明显降低。消费过度敏感性的变动表明,省级居民消费过度敏感性主要归因于中国与其他国家之间国际商品和金融市场相对于各省份之间国内商品和金融市场的更封闭。为有效提振居民消费需求以扩大内需,亟须通过提高金融和商品贸易开放水平并拓展贸易开放的广度和深度来纠正居民消费过度敏感性,尽快完善金融体系运行机制、加快转变对外贸易发展方式、落实贸易市场多元化和产品多样化战略、降低内陆地区对外贸易的物流成本是重要政策手段。

关键词: 消费过度敏感性 , 封闭经济约束 , 对外开放

Abstract: Closed-economy constraints hypothesis provides a new angle for interpreting excess sensitivity of consumption Based on Chinese provincial urban and rural panel data for the period of 1985—economy constraints hypothesis The results show that regionlevel consumption exhibits excess sensitivity to lagged regionlevel income, but regionidiosyncratic consumption exhibits substantially less sensitivity to lagged regionidiosyncratic income The change of excess sensitivity of consumption is attributed to less openness of international market than domestic market Chinese opening is still at its initial stage Further opening is important to decrease excess sensitivity of provincelevel consumption The possible approaches include enhancing financial openness and trade openness, expanding breadth and depth of trade openness, transforming development pattern of trade, implementing the strategy of polybasic market and diversified product, and reducing foreign trade logistics cost of inland area in China

Key words: excess sensitivity of consumption , closed-economy constraints , openness