经济理论与经济管理 ›› 2012, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (3): 36-47.

• 理论探索 • 上一篇    下一篇

通货膨胀与“中等收入陷阱”:
家庭福利损失的视角

 倪国华, 郑风田   

  1. 中国人民大学农业与农村发展学院
  • 收稿日期:2012-02-27 出版日期:2012-03-16 发布日期:2012-03-30
  • 作者简介:倪国华(1977—),男,内蒙古赤峰人,中国人民大学农业与农村发展学院博士研究生; 郑风田(1965—),男,河南正阳人,中国人民大学农业与农村发展学院副院长,教授,博士生导师。
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金项目(71173225)

INFLATION AND “MIDDLE INCOME TRAP”: PERSPECTIVE
OF FAMILY WELFARE LOSS

 NI  Guo-Hua, ZHENG  Feng-Tian   

  1. School of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development, Renmin University of China, Beijing , China
  • Received:2012-02-27 Online:2012-03-16 Published:2012-03-30

摘要: 本文以经典的经济增长理论为基础,结合中等收入国家的特点,提出如下理论假设:通胀所造成的家庭福利损失会影响中等收入国家宏观经济的发展,进而推动相关国家陷入“中等收入陷阱”。而后通过FGLS、差分GMM,以及系统GMM的方法对陷入“中等收入陷阱”的典型国家进行回归分析。分析结果表明,在控制了基础设施、债务水平、技术创新以及储蓄率这些影响因素之后,通胀对上述国家人均GDP增长率均有显著的负向影响,即使是在年均通胀率只有514%的东亚国家组,通胀对人均GDP增长率的平均影响也达到了123个百分点~221个百分点,影响比重达到了27%~48%。所以,我们应该加强对通胀的调控,以确保我国经济能够持续健康地发展。

关键词: 中等收入陷阱 , 通货膨胀 , 家庭福利损失

Abstract: Based on classical economic growth theories, combined with the characteristics of middleincome countries, the following theoretical assumptions were proposed in this paper: in middleincome countries, inflation caused by the loss of family benefits would seriously affect the macroeconomic development and thus promoted the countries falling into “middle income trap” This paper used FGLS, difference GMM, and system GMM methods to analyze the panel data of four groups of typical “middle income trap” suffered countries The results showed that: after controlling the factors such as infrastructure, debt level, technological innovation and savings rates, inflation had a significant negative impact on per capita GDP growth at all four groups of countries Even for the East Asian group whose average annual inflation rate was only 514 %, the impact of inflation on per capita GDP growth also reached 123~221 percentage points, and the gravity of impact reached 27%~48% Therefore, Chinese economy would develop sustainably and healthily by strengthening the control of inflation 

Key words: middleincome trap , inflation , family welfare loss