经济理论与经济管理 ›› 2009, Vol. ›› Issue (1): 57-62.

• 产业经济 • 上一篇    下一篇

房地产价格与宏观经济互动关系实证研究——基于我国31个省份面板数据分析

崔光灿   

  1. 上海师范大学商学院, 上海 200234
  • 收稿日期:2008-09-12 出版日期:2009-01-16 发布日期:2012-03-01

AN EMPIRICAL STUDY ON THE INTERACTION BETWEEN REAL ESTATE PRICES AND MACRO ECONOMY

CUI Guang-can   

  1. Business School of Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai 200234, China
  • Received:2008-09-12 Online:2009-01-16 Published:2012-03-01

摘要: 运用面板数据模型对我国1995-2006年31个省市的数据进行分析后发现,房地产价格明显受利率和通货膨胀率的影响,而且房地产供给、收入等基础性宏观经济变量在中长期也决定房地产价格。房地产价格明显影响到宏观经济稳定,房地产价格上升会增加社会总投资和总消费,房地产投资通过"财富效应"对消费的影响始终明显,对社会总投资的影响也非常显著。因此,当前要稳定宏观经济,促进经济增长,必须稳定房地产价格。

关键词: 房地产价格, 宏观经济, 社会总消费, 社会总投资

Abstract: With a panel data model analysis of a dataset covering China's 31 provinces from 1995 to 2006,we found that the real estate prices were significantly affected by China's interest rates and inflation rate,and fundamental macroeconomic variables such as supply of real estates and income determine the prices of real estates in the intermediate and long run.The prices of real estates evidently affected macroeconomic stability,rising real estate prices tended to raise total investment and total consumption,and investment in the real estate sector had significantly effects on total investment.Therefore,China should stabilize the real estate prices in order to stabilize its economy and promote economic growth.

Key words: real estate prices, macro economy, total consumption, total investment

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