关键词: 人民币升值, 农产品贸易, 贸易顺差

Abstract: The appreciation of Renminbi will directly affect the imports and exports trade price,which will not probably result in obvious influence on quantum of produce imports and exports trade.When making empirical analysis with PACF and CCF,we can see:(1) Slow appreciation speed of Renminbi has provided businessmen ample adjusting period.(2) The price flexibility of our importing and exporting produce is relatively low,which has reluctantly exceeded the critical value.(3) Produce trading configuration determined by gift of agricultural production resource is difficult to be changed.(4) Anticipation of Renminbi appreciation has resulted in stimulus for produce trade,which has counteracted the negative influence of actual appreciation lag.Because of the above reasons,slow appreciation of Renminbi has not brought obvious impact on China's agricultural produce trade.

Key words: Renminbi appreciation, agricultural produce trade, trade surplus