关键词: 经济波动, 经济增长, 宏观经济政策

Abstract: In 2003, China's economy sustains its expanding propensity since 2002, and real GDP is anticipated to grow at the annual rate of about 9 % . The business condition will fulfil its cyclical transformation from economic depression to economic prosperity in 2004. Furthermore, the first 2 decades of the 21st century will witness the historical trend of both high potential GDP growth and low core inflation. At the initial stage of economic expansion, China's macroeconomic management should continue implementing the moderately expansionary fiscal and monetary policies, and construct the policy combination around the axis of increasing domestic investment demand, to enhance the lasting and rapid economic growth in 2004 and in the future. As the natural effects of economic growth, the multiple targets of increasing employment, balancing economic structure and stabilizing exchange rate will be realized meanwhile.

Key words: economic fluctuation, economic growth, macroeconomic policies