Table of Content

16 July 2019, Volume 39 Issue 7

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70 YEARS OF CHINAS FINANCE:BRIEF HISTORY,BRILLIANT ACHIEVEMENTS AND HISTORICAL EXPERIENCE

WANG Guogang

2019, 39(7):  4-28. 

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The 70 years of Chinas financial development can be roughly divided into three periods:the period of exploration of the socialist financial system,the period of construction of the socialist financial system with Chinese characteristics,and the period of construction of Chinas modern financial systemThe achievements of Chinas financial development are mainly reflected in the effective promotion of economic development and the improvement of peoples living standards,in the establishment of a financial system with a relatively complete institution,a flexible mechanism,complete categories,a reasonable structure,adequate functions and effective supervision,which is also in line with national conditionsThe financial system has effectively prevented financial risksThe historical experience of Chinas financial development includes:insisting on the promotion of economic development as the top priority,maintaining the stability of the financial operation order,adhering to the development principle of “taking me as the mainstay”,insisting on starting from the reality of the country,and persisting in the initial intention of serving the real economyStick to the bottom line where no systematic financial risks occur

CAN ACADEMICIAN（CANDIDATES）INDEPENDENT DIRECTOR PROMOTE CORPORATE INNOVATION——Evidence from Chinese Listed Companies

XU Rong1,LI Conggang2

2019, 39(7):  29-48. 

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This paper examines for the first time the governance functions of top scientists such as academicians and their candidates as independent directors and their impact on corporate innovationThe research finds:(1)the academician（candidates） independent director is significantly positively related to corporate innovationThe conclusion is still robust after we controll the individual effect,the Propensity Score Matching(PSM)and the Heckman two stage method;(2)the longer the tenure of academician（candidates） independent director,the more the number of parttime companies,the better the promotion of the corporate innovation,the female scientists can better promote the corporate innovation,but the scientists with the experience of the returnees does not play a more effective role;(3)The results of impact channel test show that the more conservative the strategic style and the more serious the shortsightedness of management,the greater the promotion effect of employing academicians(candidates)to corporate innovationIt shows that academicians(candidates)can effectively alleviate the restrictive effect of conservative strategy and management shortsightedness on corporate innovationAnd at the same time,the independent directors of academicians(candidates)play the role of “bridge scientist”,increasing the possibility of establishing academicians'workstations in the next two years,thus promoting the cooperation between industry and university;(4)The crossimpact analysis with other corporate governance variables shows that academicians and their candidates can play a more effective role in nonstateowned enterprises,companies with centralized ownership structure,high proportion of institutional investors and companies without executives sharesThis paper is of special significance to give full play to the role of top scientists and promote the corporate innovation and the construction of national innovation system


FINANCIAL SYSTEMS, RISK FEATURES AND CORPORATE INNOVATIONS

CHEN Taoran1,TAN Zhibo2

2019, 39(7):  49-60. 

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Based on the Annual Survey of Manufacturing Firms and the Patents Dataset of China, this paper employs the rapid increase of stock market capitalization ratio during 2006—2008 and the diversity in risk features of different firms to investigate the impact of financial structure and financial development on corporate innovations. Empirical results demonstrate that a more marketbased financial structure, rather than the overall scale of the financial market, boosts the innovation of risky private firms and firms in industries with a greater dependence on external finance. Such results are not driven by the pretreatment trend and are robust to the omittedvariable problems. This paper contributes to the understandings of industrial upgrading and has rich policy implications for the construction of a financial system which will promote the corporate innovation capabilities.


CAN SOCIAL SECURITY SUBSTITUTE LAND SECURITY——Based on Analyzing the Effect of New Rural Pension Program on the Willing Price of Rental Land

LI Qin1,YANG Songtao2,ZHANG Tonglong1

2019, 39(7):  61-74. 

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Using 2011, 2013  and 2015 CHARLS data, this paper analyzes whether social security can substitute land security through estimating the effect of new rural pension program on the probability of farmland transfer and the rental price. We further analyze the heterogeneous characteristics based on the degrees of dependence on land for households. We use agricultural productivity to measure the dependence degrees on land. Our results show that new rural pension program have reduced the willing prices of farmland that will transfer out by 180 percentage points for the farmers with high agricultural productivity ranking top 50 percent and by 149% percentage points for the farmers ranking top 30 percent. But the willing prices of farmland transferring out will increase significantly by 173% for the farmers with agricultural productivity ranking bottom 30 percent. Our results confirm the existence of social pension function of land which can be substituted by NRPP to some extent, but we should notice that this substitution effect comes mainly from the farmers with high dependence degree on land.

HOW DOES THE MARKET SENTIMENT AFFECT URBAN HOUSING PRICE

HUANG Yanfen,HONG Wenbin,YU Huayi

2019, 39(7):  75-88. 

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This paper builds the theoretical model of the effects of real estate sentiment indices on housing prices. It draws lessons from the methods of constructing the investor sentiment index in capital market developed by Baker and Wurgler(2006), and selects suitable sentiment indicators from both sides of supply and demand. Meanwhile, this paper uses Baidu index as big data sentiment indicator. We use principal component analysis (PCA) to calculate real estate sentiment indices in China's 35 major cities, and further conduct empirical analysis of the impacts of market sentiment on urban housing prices. Additionally, this paper measures real estate sentiment indices in different areas, and horizontally compares the influences of market sentiment on housing prices through empirical analysis. The empirical results indicate, firstly market sentiment has a significant positive impact on real estate prices, moreover, the positive effects of market sentiment on real estate prices demonstrate regional heterogeneity, ie., the positive effects of market sentiment on real estate prices in the eastern regions are stronger than those in the central and western areas.


ANALYSIS ON THE CHOICE OF INDEPENDENT INNOVATION BEHAVIOR OF SMES AND THE TRANSMISSION MECHANISM OF POLICY INCENTIVES——From the Perspective of Dynamic Evolutionary Game of Replication

SHEN Xiaoping,CHEN Ye,ZHANG Keting

2019, 39(7):  89-102. 

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Based on the revolutionary game of duplicative dynamic and through the establishment of an evolutionary game model of innovative behavioral strategies, this paper gives the matrix expression and trace expression corresponding to the equilibrium points of the duplicative power system, and discusses the decisionmaking process with this equilibrium. We propose that the relative net payment under different strategies determines the evolutionary stability strategy of the system. Furthermore, this paper analyzes the evolutionary game results from the three aspects of the initial cost, expected excess return and risk loss, and reveals the transmission mechanism of the tradeoff. Enterprises and governments should continue to learn and adapt to changes in the market and competitive environment and take active strategies to play a synergistic role in promoting innovation.

RESEARCH ON THE CONTAGION EFFECT OF SURRENDER RISK BASED ON D-D MODEL

WANG Lizhen1DU Xia2

2019, 39(7):  103-112. 

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The prevention and control of financial risk has been placed at a more prominent position at present. Preventing the risk of crossinfection and systemic risk is one of the most important tasks of the current insurance industry. The crisis signal of an insurance company may shake the confidence of consumers to a large extent, leading to a “flock effect” that causes the risk spillovers and make the insured surrender or no longer renew, which could eventually lead to systemic risk. In this paper, based on a micro perspective and D-D model, we take the insurance companies different levels of loss claims as a key variable to establish a closed insurance market model, to study the relationship between the surrender behavior and the risk contagion, and carries on the numerical simulation and the sensitivity analysis to the risk infectivity caused by the insured under different crises. The study found that there is a critical jump point when the insured faces a different degree of crisis in the insurance company, and the behavior of the insured has a certain degree of influence on the systemic risk transmission. The regulatory authorities and insurance companies need to pay attention to the contagion effects of systemic risk caused by expectations and behaviors of policyholders.