Abstract: Using 2011, 2013  and 2015 CHARLS data, this paper analyzes whether social security can substitute land security through estimating the effect of new rural pension program on the probability of farmland transfer and the rental price. We further analyze the heterogeneous characteristics based on the degrees of dependence on land for households. We use agricultural productivity to measure the dependence degrees on land. Our results show that new rural pension program have reduced the willing prices of farmland that will transfer out by 180 percentage points for the farmers with high agricultural productivity ranking top 50 percent and by 149% percentage points for the farmers ranking top 30 percent. But the willing prices of farmland transferring out will increase significantly by 173% for the farmers with agricultural productivity ranking bottom 30 percent. Our results confirm the existence of social pension function of land which can be substituted by NRPP to some extent, but we should notice that this substitution effect comes mainly from the farmers with high dependence degree on land.

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摘要： 基于三轮（2011年、2013年和2015年）的全国微观追踪调查数据（CHARLS），本文通过分析新农保的实施对农户土地流转行为和意愿租金的影响，来考察社会保障是否存在着对土地保障的替代效应，并进一步基于农户对土地的依赖程度来分析替代效应的异质型特征。结果表明，村庄实施新农保促使村庄内土地依赖程度超过平均水平的农户转出土地的意愿租金下降180%；促使村庄内处于土地依赖程度前30%的农户转出土地的意愿租金下降149%；促使村庄内处于土地依赖程度后30%的农户转出土地的意愿租金上升173%。总的来说，社会保障对于土地保障的替代效应主要作用于高土地依赖型的农户。

关键词: 土地流转 , 新型农村养老保险 , 固定效应模型 , 土地依赖