Table of Content

16 December 2013, Volume 33 Issue 12

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STRUCTURAL EFFECTS OF PUBLIC POLICY
——Based on the Perspective of Population Aging

SHEN Kun-Rong, YU Hong-Yan

2013, 33(12):  5-13. 

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Using the Chinese provincial panel data from 2001 to 2010, this paper analyzed the structural effects of local public policy in the framework of population aging. Research results showed that population aging generated some certain negative effects to local industrial restructuring function of public policy, which appeared in the primary industry and second industry. Government spending on education and health care investment was low, which limited the human capital stock increased, so that the negative effect of population aging was more significant. In addition, Chinese public revenue environment deeply affected the development of three industries, tax levels and taking turnover tax, while the main tax structure influenced the development of structural changes and internal quality improvement.

THE IMPACT OF DEMOGRAPHIC
 DYNAMICS ON CONSUMPTION IN URBAN CHINA

XIANG Jing

2013, 33(12):  14-22. 

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Using the Extended Linear Expenditure System (ELES), this paper analyzed the impact of aging on the structure of residents consumption though 31 provinces in urban of China. The results showed that: (1) with the deepen degree of aging, households would spend more on basic living expenses, especially on food, clothing and health care based on the increasing total dependency ratios; (2) although the Chinese residents consumption structure upgraded with more expenses on entertainment culture and education and others in the future, the increasing social burden coefficient caused by aging was likely to substitute the consumption; (3) the optimization structure of the future consumption should increase the consumption for durable goods, transportation, communication and entertainment, which would improve the residents potential consumption.

WHAT ACCOUNTS FOR BUSINESS CYCLES IN CHINA:
AN ANALYSIS BASED ON BUSINESS CYCLE ACCOUNTING

JIANG Tao

2013, 33(12):  23-34. 

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This paper applies the business cycle accounting method to analyze the effects of the distorting efficiency, labor, investment and government consumption wedges on the economic fluctuations in China. Based on a neoclassical growth model, this paper calculates and simulates the realized values of these wedges from aggregate data. The results indicate that only the efficiency wedges are important to explain Chinese business cycle. This paper provides a new way to explain the economic fluctuations in China, i.e., making economic shocks and frictions to generate TFP fluctuations, which leads to the fluctuations of other variables. It is equivalent to a growth model with efficiency wedges which can explain a large fraction of fluctuations of aggregate data. The countercycle policy should pay more attention the volatility of TFP, since policies which can affect TFP may be more efficient to have an effect on economic fluctuations.

A REVIEW OF RMB EXCHANGE RATE REFORM

WANG Fang

2013, 33(12):  35-42. 

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This paper reviewed recent developments of RMB exchange rate regime established since 1994. This paper concluded that some reforming measures served the interests of shortterm policy goals even more than that of the given target of exchange rate marketization, which had hindered the accomplishment of RMB exchange rate reform. Both de facto classification of exchange rate arrangement by IMF and the comparative quantitative analysis with the highly marketized Hong Kong offshore RMB exchange rate were helpful to judge the flexibility of current RMB exchange rate.This paper argued that more diversified market participants and less exchange rate responsibilities would determine the future RMB exchange rate reform.

THE INFLUENCE OF ACCULTURATION ON CONSUMER BEHAVIOR

ZHANG Jing-1, Ramu Govindasamy2, ZHANG Li-Xiang-1

2013, 33(12):  43-55. 

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Culture is recognized as the most profound influence on consumer behavior. Containing four measures of acculturation dimensions and examining a multicultural sample of four ethnic minority consumers in US, this study sets up the Logit model and examines the influence of cultural adaptation on purchase traditional ethnic vegetable. The results indicate significant effects of acculturation on the behaviors of minority consumers. Language, ethnic identity and culture identity, the three measures of acculturation, have highest correlation with the behaviors of minority consumers. Specifically, there is a positive correlation between ethnic identity and consumer behavior; Language and culture identity have negative correlation with consumer behavior. Rather, the relationship between the length of residence and consumption behaviors proves to be irrelevant in this paper. Hence, implications of multinationality countrys consumer behavior are suggested.

THE IMPACT OF AGGLOMERATION MODES
 AND ITS DRIVING FACTORS ONINDUSTRY GROWTH
—An Empirical Study Based on Zhejiang Manufacturing Industry

CHI Ren-Yong, ZHANG Mi-Zhi

2013, 33(12):  56-67. 

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Traditional manufacturing industries were facing severe challenges under the economic transition, especially in some regions where industrial concentration degree were much higher. The domino effects caused by industrial recession brought huge impacts on the local economic development and social stability. This paper analyzed the relationship between the agglomeration characteristics, agglomeration modes and the industry growth, and made a further discussion on the driving factors of industrial agglomeration. The empirical results showed that there was a significant relationship between the agglomeration characteristics, agglomeration modes and the industry growth. Among the driving factors of industrial agglomeration, technological change, economic fluctuation, policy effects, core enterprise group and the factor cost played important influences on the industrial agglomeration modes, and determines the industrial development track.

SURVEY ON THE BURDEN OF ENTERPRISES IN CHINA

Research Group of Ministry of Industry and Information Technology

2013, 33(12):  68-74. 

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In order to lighten the burden on enterprises, to safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of enterprises, to strengthen the monitoring of enterprises burden especially the small and mediumsized enterprises burden, to explore the evaluation work of enterprises burden, this paper applies scientific methods of statistical analysis, data screening and sorting to construct the burden of enterprises related index, based on the macro data provided by various provinces and cities and micro data obtained from enterprises burden questionnaire. The index aims at simply and intuitively reflecting the burden on enterprises. This paper proposes preliminary policy recommendations on reducing the burden of enterprises on a scientific basis.

THE EFFECTS OF MULTIMARKET
 CONTACT ON MARKET ENTRY AND PERFORMANCE
——Research on Shareholding Commercial Banks in China

YAO Kai, CHEN Man

2013, 33(12):  75-90. 

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When companies are competing with each other at multiple markets, multimarket contact occurs. Comparing with traditional competition research, the theory of multimarket contact reflects the competition situation more actually and dynamically. By using 10 Shareholding Commercial Banks in China as a sample, this paper studies how the level of multimarket contacts influencing the profitability of a bank entering competitors markets, how resource similarity and spheres of influence moderating the relationship between them, and how the level of multimarket contacts influencing the banks economic performance. The empirical results show that: (1) the probability of entering into competitors markets gets higher as the increase of multimarket contacts, however, the increase of multimarket contacts by chance is uncorrelated with it; (2) the effect of multimarket contacts improve the market entry gets higher, when resource similarity between companies is high; (3) the effect of multimarket contacts improve the market entry gets higher, when the multimarket contacts between companies are reciprocal; (4) the performance of a company gets higher with the increase of multimarket contacts, after controlling other factors.

PROMOTION OR OBSTRUCTION
——Theoretical and Empirical Analysis on Technical Standards and International Trade

TAO Ai-Ping, LI Li-Xia

2013, 33(12):  91-100. 

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This paper mainly studied the theoretical mechanism of the effects of technical standards on international trade performance. By using panel data of 12 countries from 1994 to 2011, the empirical results suggested that technical standards could promote international trade. International trade formed an inverted Ushaped curve with the increase of technical standards. The size of population, gross domestic, product, technical innovation and foreign direct investment had significant positive impacts on export and import. There existed a negative correlation between real effective exchange rate and export, but a positive correlation between import and real effective exchange rate.

THE GRAVITY SHIFT OF REGIONAL
ECONOMIES AND TRENDS OF EQUALIZATION IN CHINA

HU An-Jun, LIU Yuan-Chun

2013, 33(12):  101-109. 

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Adjusting spatial structure is an important way to optimize factor allocation and reduce regional disparities. Using the models of gravity and gravity division, this paper analyzes the evolution of regional economies gravities during 19902012, and finds that 2003/2004 is the turning point of this process. The gravities of regional economies are shifting to the central and western regions since 2003/2004. The effects of government intervention on the shift of gravity are reducing since 2003, while human capital becomes a new force driving the shift of gravity. The evolution of gravities looks like a flyinggeese pattern which is composed of investment, GDP, trade and consumption.