Abstract: Using the Extended Linear Expenditure System (ELES), this paper analyzed the impact of aging on the structure of residents consumption though 31 provinces in urban of China. The results showed that: (1) with the deepen degree of aging, households would spend more on basic living expenses, especially on food, clothing and health care based on the increasing total dependency ratios; (2) although the Chinese residents consumption structure upgraded with more expenses on entertainment culture and education and others in the future, the increasing social burden coefficient caused by aging was likely to substitute the consumption; (3) the optimization structure of the future consumption should increase the consumption for durable goods, transportation, communication and entertainment, which would improve the residents potential consumption.

Key words: demographic structure , total burden coefficient , ELES, consumption structure

摘要： 本文通过我国31个省的城镇居民消费结构数据，利用扩展线性支出系统（ELES），分析了人口结构调整对我国居民消费结构的影响。研究结果表明：（1）随着老龄化程度的加深，社会总抚养系数的提高会增加人们基本生活支出；（2）从边际消费倾向来看，虽然未来我国居民消费结构升级表现为娱乐文化和教育等支出的提高，但是因老龄化引起的社会总负担系数的提高很可能对该部分的消费产生挤压；（3）家庭耐用品、交通通信和娱乐文化教育的收入弹性大于1，未来消费结构优化的重点也应当增加其贡献，提高我国居民的消费潜力。

关键词: 人口结构 , 总负担系数 , 线性支出系统（ELES） , 消费结构