关键词: 不确定性, 产出增长, 通货膨胀, GARCH-M模型

Abstract: This paper uses GARCH-M model and GIRFs to analyze macroeconomic uncertainty how to affect output growth and inflation based on Chinese data from 1952 to 2004.The paper draws several conclusions:there are negative correlation between inflation uncertainty and output growth,negative correlation between output growth uncertainty and output growth,positive correlation between output growth uncertainty and inflation,negative correlation between inflation uncertainty and inflation.Output growth shock and inflation shock will affect output growth uncertainty and inflation uncertainty with lag and asymmetry.The dynamic response of output growth to output growth shock is the strongest.Both dynamic response of inflation to output growth shock and dynamic response of output growth to inflation shock are the weakest.

Key words: macroeconomic uncertainty, output growth, inflation, GARCH-M model