关键词: 货币政策分化, 政策外溢性, 政策有效性, 动态政策处理效应

Abstract: After 2022，the global economy faces huge challenges of recovery and monetary policy divergence In the increasingly open international economic environment，the divergence of monetary policy with European and American countries will inevitably have an impact on the effectiveness of Chinas monetary policy Based on the data from January，2005 to December，2022，this paper combines the doubly robust inverse probability weighting (AIPW) with machine learning to quantitatively study the influence of US monetary policy on the effect of Chinas monetary policy Compared with the traditional econometrics method，the biggest advantage of this method is that it can estimate the difference of the influence of different monetary policy combinations of China and the US on the effect of Chinas monetary policy This paper finds that，first，the US monetary policy has spillover effects on Chinas economy，but its impact is generally lower than that of Chinas monetary policy; there is asymmetry in monetary policy effects，with both the US and Chinas monetary policies having a greater effect when tightened individually than when loosened individually Second，the US monetary policy has a significant impact on the effectiveness of Chinese monetary policy，especially on external variables，such as PPI，exchange rate，import，export，direct investment，foreign exchange reserves However，it has a small impact on internal variables，such as industrial added value and total retail sales of consumer goods Third，From the perspective of transmission channels，under different combinations of US and Chinese monetary policies，the main channels through which US monetary policy spillovers occur vary，necessitating targeted measures to enhance the effectiveness of our countrys monetary policy

Key words: monetary policy divergence, policy spillover effect, policy effectiveness, dynamic policy treatment effect