经济理论与经济管理 ›› 2024, Vol. 44 ›› Issue (10): 108-125.

• • 上一篇    下一篇

国际资本流动突然停止与非金融上市企业杠杆率

  

  1. 陈奉先(通讯作者),首都经济贸易大学金融学院;朱美玲,首都经济贸易大学金融学院;封文华,嘉兴大学经济学院。
  • 出版日期:2024-10-16 发布日期:2024-12-20
  • 基金资助:
    本文得到国家自然科学基金面上项目(72373102)、北京市教育委员会科研计划重点项目(SZ202310038016)、北京市国际金融学会课题项目(BIFS241001)和首都经济贸易大学学术创新团队项目(QNTD202206)的资助。

The Sudden Stop of International Capital Flows and the Leverage Ratio of Nonfinancial Listed Companies

  1. 1 School of Finance,Capital University of Economics and Business;
    2 School of Economics,Jiaxing University
  • Online:2024-10-16 Published:2024-12-20

摘要: 基于中国沪深A股上市公司季度数据,本文考察国际资本流动“突然停止”冲击对非金融上市企业杠杆率的影响和作用机制。研究发现:(1)“突然停止”冲击使企业杠杆率增速下降9956%,其中债权资本和股权资本流动“突然停止”均对杠杆率产生负向效应,且该影响存在持续性;(2)异质性分析表明,非国有、对外贸易占比高、投资周期长、依赖短期杠杆的企业杠杆率受股权和债权资本流动“突然停止”冲击的影响更加明显;(3)从作用机制来看,债权和股权资本流动“突然停止”通过缩减企业信贷、降低资产价格而降低企业杠杆率增速;(4)进一步分析发现,“突然停止”冲击通过影响企业杠杆率而对企业全要素生产率产生负向影响,而适度实施资本管制、外汇市场“逆周期”调节、分类实施宏观审慎政策有助于缓解“突然停止”冲击对企业杠杆率增速的负向冲击。本文为揭示国际资本流动“突然停止”冲击衍生的金融风险提供了企业层面的微观证据,同时为中国深化金融市场开放、提升金融服务实体经济效率以及防范外部冲击风险提供政策启示。


关键词: 突然停止冲击, 企业杠杆率, 资产价格, 银行信贷, 宏观审慎监管

Abstract: Stabilizing the leverage ratio of enterprises is an important equilibrium point for achieving macroeconomic stable growth and preventing risks Based on the quarterly data of 3,154 listed companies of Ashare markets from 2004 to 2019,this paper investigates the impact and mechanism of the sudden stop of international capital flows on of the leverage ratio of listed Companies
This paper finds that:(1) The sudden stop of international capital flows will cause a 9956% decline in the growth rate of the leverage ratio of listed companies Both the sudden stop of debt capital and equity capital flows have a negative effect on the leverage ratio(2) The negative impact of the sudden stop on the leverage ratio of companies is more obvious in nonstateowned,high foreign trade regions,and companies with high investment payback periods(3) The sudden stop of debt capital mainly reduces the growth rate of the leverage ratio by reducing credit The sudden stop of equity capital flows can affect the leverage ratio by:reducing credit and depressing asset prices(4) Strengthening capital account control,implementing classified and targeted macroprudential supervision,and countercyclical foreign exchange market intervention can effectively alleviate the impact of the sudden stop on the leverage ratio of enterprises risks
The marginal contributions of this paper are reflected in the following aspects:Firstly,using the data of listed companies in A share stock markets,regarding the sudden stop as a macro shock,this paper specifically examines the relationship between the sudden stop,and the leverage ratio of companies,enriching the related research on the factors influencing the leverage ratio Secondly,it expands the research on the financial risks derived from international capital flows Currently,most of the literature on capital flows is based on perspectives such as the probability of financial crises and the international contagion of financial risks,lacking microlevel evidence Thirdly,this paper divides international capital and examines more meticulously the impact of the sudden stop of equity capital and debt capital flows on the leverage ratio,as well as the channel differences of domestic and foreignfunded enterprises encountering the sudden stop shock and the differences in shortterm and longterm leverage adjustments in response to the sudden stops Finally,this paper further studies the effect of capital control policies,countercyclical policies of foreign exchange market intervention,and macroprudential supervision in responding to the sudden stops and stabilizing the leverage ratio of listed companies,providing policy references for the prevention and control of financial risks 


Key words: sudden stop of international capital flows, leverage ratio of nonfinancial enterprises, banking credit, asset price, capital controls