经济理论与经济管理 ›› 2024, Vol. 44 ›› Issue (10): 88-107.

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贸易成本、人口迁移与收入不平等

  

  1. 武汉大学经济与管理学院
  • 出版日期:2024-10-16 发布日期:2024-12-20
  • 基金资助:
    本文得到国家社会科学基金重大招标项目(20&ZD168)、国家自然科学基金项目(71973102)的资助。

Trade Costs,Internal Migration and Income Inequality

  1. School of Economics and Management,Wuhan University
  • Online:2024-10-16 Published:2024-12-20

摘要: 本文构建了一个描述多地区参与国内、国际贸易与人口迁移的异质性个体模型,采用2000—2015年全国人口普查、省间投入产出等数据,测算我国国内、国际贸易成本,全要素生产率(TFP)与国内迁移成本,并分析三者的变动及其对收入不平等的影响。结果表明,虽然贸易成本以及TFP等冲击有助于经济增长,但同时也会加剧全国收入不平等,而迁移成本冲击能够降低收入不平等。基于Dagum基尼系数分解发现,我国省间基尼系数明显增加,然而迁移成本冲击能够显著缓解省间收入不平等,并且在与贸易成本、TFP等冲击交互时作用更大。进一步分析发现,工资收入和资本收入的省间不平等均有扩大的趋势,通过促进人口迁移能够起到缓解作用。此外,外生冲击也存在明显的地区异质性效应。本文结论表明,要充分认识到国内、国际贸易成本以及TFP等冲击对促进经济增长和扩大收入不平等的双向作用,通过打破跨地区的人口迁移壁垒,可以缩小收入不平等、实现共同富裕。


关键词: 贸易成本, 迁移成本, 全要素生产率, 收入不平等, 全国统一大市场建设

Abstract: Given that China possesses a large and potential domestic market,we present a heterogeneousagent model examining trade and migration patterns among Chinese regions,and analyze the change in income inequality We quantify the internal and international trade costs,total factor productivity (TFP) and internal migration costs using National Census data and Interprovincial Inputoutput data from 2000 to 2015 Our findings indicate that both internal and international trade costs,as well as internal migration costs,have decreased TFP has shown a trend of first increasing and then decreasing,with regional variations
We quantify the impact of these exogenous shocks on national and provincial economic growth and income distribution in China The results show that the decrease in internal and international trade costs and the change in provincial TFP can promote the growth of real GDP However,these shocks may also exacerbate national income inequality,increasing the Gini coefficient by 0020,0010,and 0109,respectively,between 2000 and 2015 Based on Dagums decomposition,interprovincial income inequality is significantly higher,serving as the primary contributor to national income inequality Furthermore,lower migration costs can reduce interprovincial income inequality,with the Gini coefficient decreasing more substantially when interacting with shocks in trade costs and TFP
We further decompose income into labor and capital income,revealing that under exogenous shocks from trade costs and TFP,both labor and capital income inequality tend to widen across provinces,leading to a general rightward shift in income distribution Simultaneous migration cost shocks can reduce interprovincial inequality Additionally,we classify the provinces into four regions—Eastern,Central,Western,and Northeastern—and find regional heterogeneity We also evaluate the heterogeneous effects at the provincial level
The conclusion suggests that it is important to fully recognize the bidirectional role of internal and international trade shocks,along with TFP shocks,in promoting economic growth while also intensifying income inequality It is essential to leverage the potential of Chinas vast domestic market and continuously promote the construction of a unified national market Concurrently,managing the relationship between economic growth and common prosperity is crucial We offer policy insights with the goal of mitigating income inequality and achieving common prosperity through reducing barriers to migration across regions


Key words: trade costs, migration costs, total factor productivity, income inequality, construction of a unified national market