经济理论与经济管理 ›› 2025, Vol. 45 ›› Issue (2): 37-54.

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人工智能、产业链供应链稳定与企业出口韧性

  

  1. 山东师范大学经济学院
  • 出版日期:2025-02-16 发布日期:2025-03-12
  • 基金资助:
    本文得到国家社会科学基金项目“金融高水平开放下资本市场风险跨境传染机制、测度与防控研究”(22BJL040)的资助。

Artificial Intelligence,Industrial Chain and Supply Chain Stability,and Export Resilience of Enterprises

  1. School of Economics,Shandong Normal University
  • Online:2025-02-16 Published:2025-03-12

摘要: 加快人工智能生产力转化、提升产业链供应链安全稳定水平,进而增强企业出口韧性,是统筹开放与发展、推动中国外贸行稳致远的有效路径。本文基于微观企业数据实证考察人工智能对企业出口韧性的实际影响及其作用渠道。研究发现:人工智能能够有效化解外部需求冲击,增强企业出口韧性。从作用机制来看,人工智能通过稳定进口供应链、固定企业生产链及拓宽出口销售链三种渠道强化了产业链供应链安全稳定,最终作用于企业出口韧性提升。异质性分析表明,人工智能对发达市场偏向型企业、面临出口高风险的企业、资本和技术密集型企业以及成长期和成熟期企业出口韧性的增强作用更为明显。进一步地,人工智能能够减少不稳定出口关系与一次性出口关系的发生概率,降低出口贸易脆弱性。最后,通过产业间关联产生的协同溢出效应,人工智能有效增强了上下游企业出口韧性。本文的研究结论为新阶段加快推动人工智能发展以防范外部需求冲击、实现外贸“稳中求进”提供了重要政策启示。


关键词: 人工智能, 出口韧性, 产业链供应链稳定, 产业链溢出效应

Abstract: Accelerating the implementation of artificial intelligence,improving the security and stability level of industrial chain and supply chain,and then enhancing the export resilience of enterprises are effective ways to promote the steady and longterm development of Chinas foreign trade However,at present,Chinas export activities are facing great pressure,and it is hard to maintain the stable development of export trade The focus of Chinas economic development has shifted from promoting growth to calming fluctuations and enhancing economic resilience Using artificial intelligence to improve the stability and security level of the industrial chain and supply chain,and then enhance the resilience and countermeasures ability of enterprises to cope with major external risks and challenges,provides a new perspective for improving the export resilience of Chinese enterprises
Based on firm-level data,this paper empirically examines the actual impact of artificial intelligence on the export resilience of enterprises and its influence channels The study finds that artificial intelligence can effectively enhance the export resilience of enterprises From the perspective of influence mechanism,artificial intelligence strengthens the security and stability level of the industrial chain and supply chain by stabilizing the import supply chain,fixing the production chain and expanding the export sales chain,and ultimately plays a role in improving the export resilience of enterprises Heterogeneity analysis shows that artificial intelligence has stronger effect on the export resilience for developed marketoriented export enterprises,enterprises facing high export risk,capital and technology intensive enterprises,and enterprises in the growth and maturity stage Furthermore,artificial intelligence can reduce the probability of unstable export relations and onetime export relations,and reduce the vulnerability of export trade Finally,through the synergistic spillover effect generated by interindustry linkages,artificial intelligence effectively improves the export resilience of upstream and downstream enterprises
The research conclusions of this paper provide important policy implications Firstly,increase investment in scientific and technological innovation and artificial intelligence personnel training,and promote the development of artificial intelligence industry in an allround way Secondly,innovate and enrich artificial intelligence application scenarios,and build a wholechain and wholeprocess artificial intelligence industry application ecology Thirdly,according to the differences in export market structure,export risk,labor intensity and enterprise life cycle,optimize the artificial intelligence industry layout and maximize the “dividend effect” brought by artificial intelligence to the export resilience of enterprises


Key words: artificial intelligence, export resilience, industrial chain and supply chain stability, industrial chain spillover effect