经济理论与经济管理 ›› 2024, Vol. 44 ›› Issue (4): 51-66.

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精准扶贫、人口流动与地区经济差距

  

  1. 南京农业大学经济管理学院
  • 出版日期:2024-04-16 发布日期:2024-05-15
  • 基金资助:
    本文得到国家社科基金重大项目(23&ZD116)的资助。

Targeted Poverty Alleviation,Population Mobility and Regional Economic Gap

  1. College of Economics and Management,Nanjing Agricultural University
  • Online:2024-04-16 Published:2024-05-15

摘要: 本文利用县域面板数据结合2000—2020年人口普查资料,系统考察了精准扶贫对地区经济差距的影响,以及人口流动在其中的角色扮演。结果显示,精准扶贫政策的实施确实有助于缩小地区经济差距,但效果相对有限。一个重要的原因在于,精准扶贫存在加速贫困县常住人口流失的倾向,而常住人口流失扩大了地区经济差距。进一步研究显示,贫困县人口流失对地区经济差距的激发作用明显强于其他地区;对于处在城市群或南方地区的贫困县,精准扶贫在降低其与其他地区经济差距中的作用更为明显;对于处在城市群或北方地区的贫困县,精准扶贫导致其流失更多常住人口。本文为认识精准扶贫的经济作用及其要素配置效应,优化后扶贫时代脱贫地区扶持策略提供了经验证据,但本文仅是对精准扶贫经济效应的短期评估,其经济潜力仍需长期观察。

关键词: 地区经济差距, 精准扶贫, 人口流动

Abstract: China's targeted poverty alleviation campaign launched in 2013 is the largest poverty alleviation battle in human history By the end of 2020,9899 million rural impoverished people have been lifted out of poverty,832 povertystricken counties have been completely removed from poverty,and 128 thousand povertystricken villages have been lifted out of poverty In addition to eliminating absolute poverty,another important function of poverty alleviation is to alleviate regional development imbalances through industrial support However,poverty alleviation policies may also induce accelerated population outflow,thereby exacerbating regional economic disparities There is lacking relevant research to examine the impact of targeted poverty alleviation on regional economic disparities,and to explore the role of population mobility
What to be tested in this paper are threefold Firstly,we use PSM-DID method to evaluate the impact of targeted poverty alleviation on regional economic disparities Secondly,employing DID method,the impact of targeted poverty alleviation on the mobility of permanent residents in povertystricken counties is identified Thirdly,the instrumental variable method is used to investigate the impact of population mobility on regional economic disparities
The estimated results show that the implementation of targeted poverty alleviation policies does help narrow the regional economic gap,but the effect is relatively limited One of the important reasons for this is that targeted poverty alleviation tends to accelerate the loss of permanent residents in povertystricken counties,while the loss of permanent residents has significantly widened the regional economic gap Further evidence shows that the population loss in povertystricken counties has a stronger stimulating effect on the regional economic gap than that in other regions For poor counties in urban agglomerations or southern regions,targeted poverty alleviation plays a more obvious role in reducing the economic gap between them and other regions For poor counties in urban agglomerations or northern areas,targeted poverty alleviation leads to the loss of more permanent residents
The main contributions of this article are twofold Firstly,the early evaluation of the impact of targeted poverty alleviation on regional economic disparities has reference value for understanding the regional development balance role of this policy Secondly,from the perspective of population mobility,exploring the factor allocation and economic impact induced by precision poverty alleviation can provide experience and theoretical basis for optimizing development strategies in impoverished areas
The main policy implications of this article are threefold Firstly,targeted poverty alleviation is the reconfiguration of social resources in regions and populations The role of this allocation is to ensure the stable improvement of human capital and to improve the regions ability to undertake industries,supply services,and other aspects Only by ensuring the development capabilities of both people and regions can the foundation of social development be firmly maintained Secondly,it must be clarified that povertystricken counties,especially rural areas,are not growth poles for economic development Thirdly,poverty alleviation in povertystricken counties and rural areas is an important measure to address Chinas economic hard landing But it is necessary to scientifically examine the economic development of povertystricken areas,strengthen rational choices in industry selection,and avoid promoting hightech industries that do not match the local development level

Key words: regional economic gap, targeted poverty alleviation, population mobility