经济理论与经济管理 ›› 2024, Vol. 44 ›› Issue (2): 31-48.

• 高质量发展之路 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国居民消费结构转型驱动力:收入效应还是相对价格效应

  

  1. 中国人民大学经济学院
  • 出版日期:2024-02-16 发布日期:2024-03-18
  • 基金资助:
    本文受到国家社会科学基金项目“市场结构、企业进入和非平衡增长中的产业结构升级研究”(16BJL082)的资助。

The Driving Force of the Transformation of China's Residents'Consumption Structure:Income Effect or Relative Price Effect

  1. School of Economics,Renmin University of China
  • Online:2024-02-16 Published:2024-03-18

摘要: 本文基于结构转型框架,以居民消费在各部门的分配份额度量居民消费结构转型,利用1992—2017年中国居民消费支出及投入产出表等数据,通过对偏好进行非线性估计并结合反事实分析方法,实证探讨了我国居民消费结构升级的主导驱动力。研究发现:消费的不同定义和测度方式会使结论出现差异。在最终消费支出定义下,收入效应是驱动我国居民消费结构升级的主导力量;在消费增加值定义下,若利用支出法GDP方法构造消费,则相对价格效应对2002年之后我国居民消费结构升级的贡献大大增强。本文在理论层面为结构转型相关研究提供了需求侧视角,在应用层面有助于明确我国居民消费结构升级的主要动力,进而为高质量发展阶段下消费提质升级提供有益的借鉴及参考。

关键词: 居民消费结构转型, 收入效应, 相对价格效应

Abstract: China has now shifted from the stage of highspeed growth to the stage of highquality development,and promoting the quality  improvement and upgrading of consumption are inevitable requirements for the highquality development of the economy In the framework of structural transformation,this paper empirically investigates the dominant driving force of the transformation of China‘s residents’ consumption structure from 1992 to 2017 This paper first uses the share of residents‘consumption in three sectors of agriculture,manufacturing and services to measure the structural transformation of residents’consumption,and distinguishes the definition of consumption into final consumption expenditure and consumption value added,and then conducts empirical analyses using data on China’s residents personal consumption expenditure and inputoutput data The results show that different definitions and measurement methods of consumption will lead to different conclusions: under the definition of final consumption expenditure,the income effect is the dominant force driving the upgrading of China‘s residents’ consumption structure; under the definition of consumption value added,the same conclusion is obtained if the consumption value added is constructed by using the method of the circulation cost ratio,and if the method of the expenditure approach to GDP is utilised,then the contribution of relative price effect to China‘s consumption upgrading after 2002 is greatly enhanced,implying that the main driving force for the upgrading of residents consumption structure is gradually shifted from the income effect to the relative price effect
This paper provides a demandside perspective for the study of structural transformation at the theoretical level,and at the applied level,it helps to clarify the main driving force of China’s residents‘ consumption upgrading and then provides useful references for quality improvement and upgrading of consumption in the stage of highquality development
The income effect is the dominant driving force for the upgrading of China's residents'consumption structure,which reflects the important fact that the rapid growth of China's residents’ income has led to the continuous improvement of the consumption level Along with China‘s economy going into the stage of highquality development,to promote the upgrading of the consumption structure of residents still need to focus on the role of the income effect Because only when the income level increases,people will reduce the demand for agricultural and sideline products and other basic subsistence consumption,and increase the demand for services and other developmental and enjoymentoriented consumption In addition,the relative price effect is rising in importance to the upgrading of the consumption structure of the residents This means that accelerating the transformation and upgrading of the consumption structure of the residents requires not only continuing to increase residents’ income on the demand side,but also incentivising technological innovation and capital accumulation on the supply side,upgrading the level and quality of the supply system,so that the supply can better adapt to and create new demand,and leading to a positive interaction between supply and demand through supplyside structural reform

Key words: transformation of residents'consumption structure, income effect, relative price effect