科技创新与现代化产业体系耦合发展

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 本文构建了科技创新与现代化产业体系的耦合发展模型，基于熵权TOPSIS和灰色关联度评价法，对2007—2022年中国30个省份的科技创新与现代化产业体系耦合度进行了测度。在此基础上，本文利用Dagum基尼系数、σ收敛系数和莫兰指数对耦合度的时空特征进行分析，并通过建立Tobit模型探讨了科技创新与现代化产业体系耦合度的影响因素。研究发现：第一，在全国层面上，科技创新与现代化产业体系耦合度呈稳步上升趋势，但目前处于初级协调阶段。第二，耦合度的总体差异呈扩大趋势，主要来自区域间差异；除东北地区存在σ收敛外，全国以及东部、中部和西部地区均呈发散态势；耦合度存在空间正相关性，大部分省份呈“高－高”或“低－低”聚集特征。第三，金融规模、基础设施、信息化水平、人口受教育水平和社会福利对耦合度有正向影响，政府干预有负向影响，且这些因素对耦合度的影响存在区域异质性。

关键词: 科技创新, 现代化产业体系, 耦合发展

Abstract: Building a modern industrial system is an important way to promote highquality development and comprehensively build a socialist modernized country Scientific and technological innovation is the core element for developing new quality productivity and an important support for the modern industrial system This article constructs a coupling development model between scientific and technological innovation and modern industrial system，and measures the coupling degree in 30 provinces of China from 2007 to 2022 based on entropy weight TOPSIS and grey correlation evaluation method On this basis，this article analyzes the spatiotemporal characteristics of the coupling degree using Dagum Gini coefficient，σ convergence coefficient，and Moran index，and explores the influencing factors of the coupling degree by establishing Tobit model The main conclusions are as follows：
Firstly，the overall coupling degree between scientific and technological innovation and modern industrial system is steadily increasing，but it is currently in the primary coordination stage and there is still a lot of room for improvement；there is a significant gap in the coupling degree among the four major regions，with the coupling degree in the eastern region being much higher than in other regions
Secondly，the overall difference in the coupling degree between scientific and technological innovation and modern industrial systems is widening，and its main source is regional differences；except for the coupling degree in Northeast China，which exhibits convergence characteristics，the whole country，as well as the eastern，central，and western regions，exhibit divergence characteristics；the coupling degree between scientific and technological innovation and modern industrial system has a significant spatial positive correlation，and the coupling degree of most provinces shows a clustering feature of “highhigh” or “lowlow”
Thirdly，financial scale，infrastructure，information technology level，population education level，and social welfare have a positive impact on the coupling degree between scientific and technological innovation and modern industrial system，while government intervention has a negative impact，and these driving effects exhibit regional heterogeneity
Based on the above research results，this article proposes suggestions to promote the coupling development of scientific and technological innovation and modern industrial system：enhance the development level of scientific and technological innovation and modern industrial system；narrow the regional differences in the coupling degree between scientific and technological innovation and modern industrial system；pay attention to the close neighbor effect of the coupling development of scientific and technological innovation and modern industrial system；grasp the regional heterogeneity of influencing factors and implement targeted policies according to local conditions

Key words: scientific and technological innovation, modern industrial system, the coupling development

林木西, 王聪. 科技创新与现代化产业体系耦合发展[J]. 经济理论与经济管理, 2024, 44(12): 1-18.

LIN Muxi, WANG Cong. The Coupling Development of Scientific and Technological Innovation and Modern Industrial System[J]. Economic Theory and Business Management, 2024, 44(12): 1-18.

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