关键词: 中国宏观经济, 房地产, 消费, 地方政府债务, 结构性调整

Abstract: In 2023，China's economy continued to recover and highquality development was solidly advanced In 2023，Chinas macroeconomy showed four new characteristics：the economic recovery process was tortuous；compared with the traditional economic recovery process，traditional leading indicators had failed during this recovery process；economic differentiation was obvious；and there was a large difference between macro performance and micro perception Behind these four new characteristics，the restoration of production and living order was the main driving force for economic recovery in 2023 The prominent problem was the insufficient endogenous aggregate demand and the slow recovery of confidence The reasons of the lack of aggregate demand are cyclical issues such as balance sheet shocks，and more importantly，structural problems For example，the traditional drivers of consumption are missing，and structural factors lead to overshooting of the real estate market，and trade among advanced economies is facing challenges Further investigation shows that behind the structural problems is that Chinas economy is in a period of deep adjustment and transition from focusing on incremental capacity expansion to adjusting stock and optimizing incremental growth The macro governance system and local government behavior model have not yet fully adapted The combined force of policies and policy transmission efficiency decrease In 2024，although cyclical and structural problems are still prominent，the most difficult period of economic transition has passed，cyclical forces will bottom out and gradually start to rise，and new structural momentum will continue to gather 2024 is still in the dividend window period after the “the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China”，the implementation period of a new round of government agency reform and stateowned enterprise reform，the breakthrough period of new technologies promoting domestic substitution，and the upward period of cyclical factors Based on comprehensive judgment，the economy will further return to normal growth in 2024 As cyclical forces bottom out and new momentum gradually gathers，various industries are expected to move from a state of divergence into a stage of balanced growth
In 2024，we should focus on the following risks：（1） the interest rate gap between China and the United States will be maintained for a long period of time，thereby suppressing domestic asset prices；（2） the possibility of real estate liquidity risk spreading；（3） the structural and regional nature of local government debt problems are prominent；（4） local governments may exert too much force，interfering with normal market adjustments；（5） export pressure on developed economies in the United States and Europe is great，and adjustments to the international industrial chain impact the upgrading of the export structure We recommend setting an economic growth target of 5% for 2024 In 2024，we must further clarify the direction of highquality development，timely launch practical new measures，enhance the confidence of enterprises and residents，and stimulate new momentum for economic development We should fully consider new changes in economic operations，strive to clear the transmission mechanism，and improve policy efficiency

Key words: China's macroeconomy, real estate, consumption, local government debt, structural adjustment