经济理论与经济管理 ›› 2023, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (11): 85-98.

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双循环与经济增加值解构:基于价值链的视角*

  

  1. 1  北京航空航天大学人文社会科学学院;   2 清华大学经济管理学院。
  • 出版日期:2023-11-16 发布日期:2024-01-02
  • 基金资助:
    本文得到教育部人文社会科学研究项目(23YJC790058)、北京市社会科学基金项目(19YJC030)和国家自然科学基金项目(72173071)的资助。

DUAL CIRCULATIONS AND DECOMPOSITION OF ECONOMIC VALUE ADDED:A PERSPECTIVE OF VALUE CHAIN

  1. 1 School of Humanities and Social Sciences,Beihang University;
    2 School of Economics and Management,Tsinghua University
  • Online:2023-11-16 Published:2024-01-02

摘要: 本文从价值链的视角,构建双循环增加值构成模型和嵌入双循环框架的经济增加值(GDP)核算模型,并利用OECDAMNE数据库实证考察2005—2016年中国双循环的增加值构成、内外互动特征及其对中国GDP的贡献。研究发现:(1)中国经济内循环的规模高于外循环,内资企业是双循环中占比最大的市场主体,但外循环在引致增加值的能力上优于内循环;(2)中国内循环蕴含的国外增加值主要来自东亚等地区,而由中国创造的国内增加值经由外循环主要流向北美等地区,表现出中国内外循环在增加值来源和去向上的区域非对称性;(3)内循环贡献了七成以上的中国GDP,且内资企业贡献的GDP明显高于外资企业;(4)中国内外循环蕴含的国内增加值占比、内循环对本国GDP的贡献程度、经由外循环对世界GDP的贡献程度均稍逊于美国,但均在2005—2016年呈现积极的上升态势。中国应进一步发挥内需潜力和扩大对外开放,利用内外资企业的比较优势,加快构建新发展格局,助力实现中国经济的行稳致远。

关键词: 新发展格局, 价值链, 增加值解构, GDP, 区域互动

Abstract: This paper constructs the valueadded decomposition model of dual circulation and the economic value added (GDP) accounting model in the dual circulations framework from the perspective of value chain,and uses the OECDAMNE database to analyze the valueadded composition of Chinas dual circulations,the characteristics of domestic and international interaction and its contributions to Chinas GDP The results show that:Firstly,the scale of Chinas domestic circulation is higher than that of the international circulation;and in terms of ownership type,domesticowned firms are the largest market players in the dual circulations,but the international circulation is better than the domestic circulation in terms of the ability to create value added Secondly,the foreign value added contained in Chinas domestic circulation mainly comes from East Asia and other regions,while the domestic value added created by China mainly flows to North America and other regions through the international circulation,which shows the regional asymmetry in the source and destination of value added in Chinas domestic and international circulations Thirdly,the domestic circulation contributes to more than 70% of Chinas GDP,and the GDP contributed by domesticowned firms is significantly higher than that by foreignowned firms Finally,the proportions of domestic value added in the domestic and international circulations,the GDP contributed by the domestic circulation and contribution to the GDP of the world by the international circulations of China are slightly lower than those of the United States,but they show an excitingly growing trend from 2005 to 2016 in China China should further tap into the potential of domestic demand and open up wider to the world,and leverage the comparative advantages of domesticowned and foreignowned firms to accelerate the building of the new development paradigm and to contribute to the steady and longterm growth of the Chinas economy

Key words: new development paradigm, value chain, value added decomposition, GDP, regional interaction