关键词: 混合所有制改革, 产能过剩, 倒U型曲线, 政策性负担, 预算软约束

Abstract: Under the policy background of deepening the mixed ownership reform of SOEs，comparing with other studies using positive logic to study the similarities and differences in the causes and resolution mechanisms of overcapacity between SOEs and other ownership enterprises，this article constructs counterfactual causal inferences through reverse logic to explore the institutional causes of the overcapacity of SOEsThat is，can the overcapacity be resolved when the status of the SOEs changes after the mixed ownership reform? In the empirical analysis，this paper firstly uses the method of PSM and multiperiod DID to identify the policy impactSecondly，this paper analyzes the differences of the impact of SOEs scale on its capacity utilization rate under different market structures，and illustrates the ways that the mixed ownership reform of SOEs resolves overcapacityLastly，this paper explores the transmission effect between the institutional roots and derivative factors of overcapacity.

Key words: mixed ownership reform, overcapacity, invertedU curve, policy burden, soft budget constraint