关键词: 政府债务规模, 经济发展, 老龄化, 加速效应

Abstract: Based on the panel data of 63 economies in the world from 1996 to 2016，this paper uses the static and dynamic threshold regression models to study the accelerating effect of aging on the scale of government debtStudies have shown that in the long run，aging can not only have a significant and positive impact on government debt，but for relatively more developed economies，aging has a greater impact on government debt accumulationThe policy implication of this paper is that in order to mitigate the acceleration effect，on the one hand，it is necessary to maintain steady growth of the government revenue by improving the total factor productivity，optimizing the tax structure，and improving the transfer of stateowned capital；on the other hand，it is also advised to break the rigidity of pension expenditure and match its growth rate with economic growth and government revenue growth

Key words: government debt scale, economic development, aging, acceleration effect