经济理论与经济管理 ›› 2022, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (5): 21-35.

• 经济热点 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国区域经济分化与空间动能解析

  

  1. 中国人民大学应用经济学院区域与城市经济研究所
  • 出版日期:2022-05-16 发布日期:2022-06-09
  • 基金资助:
    本研究得到中国人民大学科学研究基金(中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金)(批准号:2020030105)的资助。

FACTOR DECOMPOSITION OF REGIONAL DISPARITY AND DRIVING FORCE OF CHINA'S ECONOMY

  1. School of Applied Economics, Renmin University of China
  • Online:2022-05-16 Published:2022-06-09

摘要: 1949—2019年,中国各省份经济总量不平等程度先下降后上升,在近十年的短周期内也呈现先下降后上升的态势;而人均实际GDP不平等程度则处于水平波动的状态,近年来呈现σ趋同态势,并在2019年出现β趋同的新迹象。创新能力较弱、政府债务率偏高和劳动人口占比偏低是当前落后地区增长动能匮乏的重要原因。研发支出、资本存量和就业规模是区域经济差距形成的主要原因,可以解释1999—2019年省级层面GDP差异的889%和人均GDP差异的591%,其中研发支出与就业规模是地区GDP总量分化的主因,研发支出与资本存量是地区人均GDP分化的主因。空间计量分析发现,中国区域经济增长的空间溢出效应显著存在,但研发支出、资本存量和就业规模的空间溢出效应存在明显区别,仅周边研发支出对地区经济增长存在正向空间溢出效应,并且东中西三大经济带的空间溢出效应存在一定差异。

关键词: 经济增长, 区域差距, 夏普利值分解, 空间溢出效应

Abstract: China's regional GDP inequality showed a downward and then an upward trend in 1949—2019, and it also showed a similar trend in the past decade Regional per capita GDP inequality is in a state of horizontal fluctuation, and appears σ convergence in recent years and β convergence in 2019 At present, weak innovation ability, high government debt ratio and low proportion of labor are important reasons for lack of driving force in less developed areas R&D expenditure, capital stock and employment scale are the main reasons for the formation of regional economic inequality, which can explain 889% of provincial level GDP difference and 591% of per capita GDP difference from 1999 to 2019 R&D expenditure and employment scale are the main causes of regional GDP inequality, and R&D expenditure and capital stock are the main causes of regional per capita GDP inequality The spatial econometric analysis shows that the spatial spillover effect of China's regional economic growth is significant, but the spatial spillover effects of R&D expenditure, capital stock and employment scale are different Only R&D expenditure has positive spatial spillover effect on economic growth, and there are certain differences in the spatial spillover effects of the three economic belts in the East, the West and the middle region

Key words: economic growth,  , regional disparity,  , Shapley value decomposition, driving force