关键词: 中国经济, 常态化, 经济复苏, 增长预测, 十四五

Abstract: 2021 is the centenary of the founding of the Communist Party of China. It is a key year for Chinas economy to continue to recover from the COVID19 shock under the strong leadership of the party and take the lead in starting the normalization process in the world. As the first year of the 14th Fiveyear Plan, the intersection of the two Centennial goals and the year of strategic transformation, it is of great strategic significance for China's macroeconomy to realize comprehensive normalization in 2021. This paper focuses on the analysis of the core characteristics of the normalization process of China's economy, the internal and external pressures as well as policy supports. According to the qualitative judgment and setting a series of parameters, this paper forecasts the core indicators of China's macroeconomy in 2021 by using the CMAFM model, the analysis and prediction model of China's macroeconomy constructed by Renmin University of China. Finally, based on qualitative judgment and numerical prediction, this paper puts forward a series of policy recommendations.

Key words: China's economy, normalization, economic recovery, growth forecast, the 14th Fiveyear Plan