关键词: 产业政策, 固定资产投资, 农村人力资本

Abstract: This paper estimates the impact of investmentled industrial policy on rural human capital. A cohort differenceindifferences (cohortDID) identification strategy is utilized based on the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS2018). The results find that since 2008, local governments investmentled industrial policy has resulted in largescale investment in traditional infrastructure. This policy significantly reduced the possibility of rural schoolaged youth to complete high school education. The conclusion remains robust when instrument variable (IV) method is applied. Additionally, this study attempts to explore the mechanism of the above effects. On the one hand, investmentled industrial policy has induced an increasing growth in traditional infrastructure investment. Blooming opportunities for lowskilled jobs in the construction industry and other related industries enhanced the opportunity cost of achieving high school degree. On the other hand, an increase in lowskilled jobs caused the convergence of wages of labors with different education levels as well as the declining of the skill premiums in wages, which further lowered expected returns to high school investment. The conclusion of this paper has reference value for China to comprehensively integrate industrial policy that matching innovationled economic development model in the future 14th FiveYear Plan period.

Key words: industrial policy, fixed asset investment, rural human capital