关键词: 农业户口老年人, 新型农村社会养老保险, 养老金, 生活满意度, 对未来生活的信心, 断点回归

Abstract:  As an important social security policy, the new rural social pension insurance still has no unified evaluation conclusion. Based on the data of China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) in 2016, this paper uses regression discontinuity design method to assess the policy effect of the new rural social pension insurance with the indicators of happiness for the elderly. The study measures the sense of happiness from two dimensions: life satisfaction and confidence in the future life. This paper finds that the impact of pension on life satisfaction is not significant, but it improves their confidence of the future life. Further heterogeneity analysis shows that happiness of the elderly in the eastern regions and in the middle and high income groups has been significantly improved after they receive the pension, but the crowdingout effect has a greater impact in reality. Finally, as a social support, the new rural social pension insurance system has a substitution effect with the traditional concept of “intrafamily transfer”.

Key words: elderly people with rural household registration, new rural social pension insurance, pension, life satisfaction, confidence in the future life, regression discontinuity design