关键词: 财政政策周期性, 财政分权, 政府债务

Abstract: If the actual operation of fiscal policy tools deviates from the original design, it will reduce the regulatory effect and lead to the aggravation of macroeconomic fluctuations. From the view of the countercyclical adjustment goal of local government fiscal policy, this paper focuses on the countercyclical effect of fiscal decentralization deepening and increased government debt issuance. The results are as follows: The fiscal policy of local government shows a procyclical feature. The improvement of fiscal decentralization enlarges the procyclicality of local fiscal policy. The increase of local government debt issuance makes local fiscal policy countercyclical. The fiscal policies of local governments and their income and expenditure are procyclical. The debt balance points from “pro” to “counter” are 0137, 0113 and 0209 respectively. At present, the debt scales of most regions are below the debt balance point. The internal factor driving the countercyclical regulation of local government debt is the promotion incentive of officials. The higher the promotion incentive is, the stronger the countercyclical regulation of local government debt will be. However, the fluctuation of external market financing environment weakens the countercyclical regulation of local government debt. The policy proposition is that it is not appropriate to excessively decentralize fiscal powers. The government should increase the scale of local government debt issuance and promote countercyclical adjustment of local fiscal policy.

Key words: fiscal policy cycle, fiscal decentralization, government debt