关键词: 改革开放, 经济增长, 合成控制法

Abstract: This paper considers the reform and openingup policy as a quasinatural experiment, and firstly uses the synthetic control method to examine the performance effect of the reform and openingup policy on Chinas economic growth. The paper finds that the synthetic control method simulates the situation before the reform and openingup policy through weighting many control objects. The synthetic control method can evaluate the performance effect of the reform and openingup policy more scientifically than traditional approaches. The result shows that the reform and openingup policy has accelerated Chinas economic growth rate by 669 percentage points every year on average since 1978. The placebo test, rank test and DID estimation method prove the validity and robustness of the above results. The mechanism to accelerate Chinas growth of the reform and openingup policy is the increasing physical capital investment and international trade rather than the inadequate human capital. This paper firstly quantitatively supports the popular opinion of the reform and openingup policy creating Chinas economic growth miracle, and also supplies the vital historical quantitative basis and empirical evidence to the future promotion of reform and openingup.

Key words:  , reform and openingup, economic growth, synthetic control method