经济理论与经济管理 ›› 2021, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (1): 65-78.

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“新农保”的福利效应与地方政府信任*

  

  1. 1    重庆大学公共管理学院;  2  重庆大学马克思主义学院。
  • 出版日期:2021-01-16 发布日期:2021-01-27
  • 基金资助:
    本文得到国家社科基金项目(18BRK015)和中央高校基本科研业务费科研专项(2018CDXYGG0054)的资助。

THE WELLBEING OF CHINA'S NEW RURAL PENSION SCHEME AND LOCAL POLITICAL TRUST

  1. 1. School of Public Affairs, Chongqing University; 2. School of Marxism, Chongqing University
  • Online:2021-01-16 Published:2021-01-27

摘要: “新农保”的福利效应对提升政府信任和政府治理能力具有重要影响。本文采用中国家庭追踪调查数据(CFPS),从参保农民对地方干部信任的角度,实证分析了新农保这一公共政策实施对农村居民对地方政府信任的影响。研究结果表明:相较于非参保组,新农保明显提升了参保居民的政府信任;在考虑了遗漏变量、自选择等内生性问题后,这一结论依然稳健。异质性分析表明,新农保显著提升了中低收入家庭以及中西部地区参保组的政府信任水平。进一步,本文从“物质福利效应”“社交福利效应”和“心理福利效应”的角度考察了新农保福利效应增进地方政府信任的途径,结果表明,参保初期,新农保政策带来的物质福利增加、社交福利改善和心理福利满足均显著提高了参保居民对地方政府的信任。但从参保的长期效应来看,新农保的福利效应对政府信任的影响从长期看并不显著,这可能是由新农保的实际保障水平和人们预期的保障水平之间的差距所导致的。

关键词: 农村居民, 地方政府信任, 新农保, 福利效应

Abstract: The wellbeing of China's New Rural Pension Scheme(NRPS)has an important impact on enhancing political trust and governance capabilities. Using data of the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS),this paper empirically analyses the impact of the NRPS on local political trust from the perspective of the farmers' trust in local public officials. The results shows that compared with the noninsured group, the political trust of the insured residents is significantly higher. After considering the endogenous issues such as missing variables and selfselection, the result is still robust. Moreover, heterogeneity analysis shows that the NRPS has significantly improved the trust level of the government among lowincome and middleincome families as well as those in the central and western regions. Furthermore, we investigates possible mechanisms of the effect, including “material benefits”, “social benefits” and “selfsatisfaction benefits”, and finds that the NRPS has promoted local political trust by increasing the material benefits, social benefits and selfsatisfaction benefits of the insured residents. However, in the long run, the NRPS has not shown a longterm positive significant impact on local political trust. This may be due to the gap between the actual security level of the NRPS and the expected security level of the people.

Key words: rural residents, local political trust, New Rural Pension Scheme, wellbeing