关键词: “丝绸之路经济带”, 国家风险, 超效率DEA模型, Malmquist指数

Abstract: In order to improve the efficiency of investment cooperation with host countries,this paper builds a risk evaluation system for China's outward foreign direct investment and uses the inputoriented superefficiency DEA model from the perspective of input and output.The analysis method that combines with the Malmquist index conducts an empirical analysis of risks in the countries along the “Silk Road Economic Belt” from 2014 to 2018.The result shows that,from a static perspective,Central and South Asian countries present a higher level of investment risk.China should focus on the improvement of the host country's domestic investment environment.European countries,especially those in Central and Eastern Europe,are more suitable for Chinese companies to invest overseas,and the scale of cooperation should be further expanded.The investment risks of West Asian countries are polarized.China should pay close attention to the hidden risks of investment risks in highrisk countries,and establish necessary compensation mechanisms.From a dynamic perspective,according to the analysis of the Malmquist model,the risks in the countries along the “Silk Road Economic Belt” are gradually improving and the overall trend of national management is developing in a good direction.Based on the analysis results,this article puts forward relevant policy recommendations.

Key words: “Silk Road Economic Belt”, national risk, the Superefficiency DEA Model, Malmquist index