关键词: 城投债, 土地价格, 交通基础设施, 产能过剩

Abstract: Based on the theory of urban investment bonds affecting overcapacity and taking the panel data of prefecturelevel cities in China from 2004 to 2016 as a sample, this paper examines the specific effects and related mechanisms of urban investment bonds on overcapacity. The results show that: there is a “Ushaped” relationship between urban investment bonds and regional overcapacity; and the impact of urban investment bonds on overcapacity is more significant in the central and western regions, the southern regions, large cities and in postfinancial crisis era. Mechanism analysis shows that local governments use urban investment bonds to lower the price of industrial land and to invest in transportation infrastructure to increase excess capacity, and the effect of lowering the price of industrial land is even more serious. Therefore, this paper proposes corresponding suggestions in moderately controlling debt scale, ameliorating system incentive measures and improving factor pricing mechanism.

Key words: urban investment bonds, land price, transportation infrastructure, overcapacity