关键词: 财政支出分权, 支出预算偏离, 预算最大化

Abstract: Defined as the difference between government final accounts and the budget spending, expenditure budget deviation is directly concerned with the establishment of modern budget system and the effect of positive fiscal policy on improving quality and efficiency. The theory of budget maximization points out that local governments pursue the maximization of discretionary budget, which will lead to budget expenditure exceeding final accounts expenditure, while fiscal expenditure decentralization facilitates the conditions for local governments to pursue the maximization of discretionary budget. Therefore, fiscal expenditure decentralization is an important factor leading to the deviation of expenditure budget. Based on the provincial data and the aggregate data of cities and counties on fiscal budget and final accounts from 1994 to 2017, this paper finds that the higher the degree of decentralization of fiscal expenditure, the greater the deviation of government expenditure budget. Various robustness tests support the conclusion. Moreover, economic development and fiscal transparency can reduce the impact. Adjusting the authority between different levels of government, establishing a fiscal system in which the powers of governments are commensurate with their respective spending obligations and moderately strengthening central authority and expenditure responsibility will effectively reduce government expenditure budget deviation.

Key words: fiscal expenditure decentralization, expenditure budget deviation, budget maximization