经济理论与经济管理

• 经济热点 • 上一篇    下一篇

实体经济低迷与房地产繁荣之“困”*

何怡瑶#br#   

  1. 何怡瑶,浙江大学经济学院,香港中文大学刘佐德全球经济及金融研究所,邮政编码:310027,电子信箱:heyiyao@zjueducn。
  • 出版日期:2017-09-16 发布日期:2017-09-21
  • 基金资助:
    文得到浙江大学不动产投资研究中心的资助。
     

THE DILEMMA OF ECONOMIC RECESSION AND REAL ESTATE BOOM

HE Yi-yao   

  1. 1School of Economics, Zhejiang University; 2Lau Chor Tak Institute of Global Economics and Finance, CUHK
  • Online:2017-09-16 Published:2017-09-21

摘要: 本文以实体经济低迷和房地产行业繁荣的困局为切入点,研究了困局产生的原因,并从房产税的视角探讨了如何走出这一困局。本文发现:第一,经济进入新常态后,宽松的货币政策导致增加的货币流向了房地产行业,资源的错配使投资和产出长期无法走出“L”型区间;第二,本文通过三次模拟实验证明,政府可以考虑适当地通过对代表性家庭征房产税进行宏观调控,解决资源错配问题。

关键词: 资源错配 , 房产税 , DSGE模型 , 经济波动

Abstract:  This paper focuses on the dilemma of economic recession and real estate boom, and studies policy implications of house property tax in helping real economy go out of the dilemma. Empirical results show as follows. First, in the Chinas New Normal, easing monetary policy pushes money into housing market and leads to resource misallocation, which aggravates recession of output and investment in the L section. Second, by three experiments I show that it is plausible for government to execute house property tax on household to solve resource misallocation and stabilized economy.  

Key words: resource misallocation , house property tax , DSGE model , economic fluctuations