关键词: 信贷配给 , 房地产业波动 , 房地产业调控 , 门槛模型

Abstract: Credit is an important source to support the progressing scale of real estate investment and consumption,while the real estate market is a highrisk market which would have the higher probability to occur moral hazard and adverse selection risk,therefore,credit supply of commercial banks in the real estate market will inevitably be constrained by credit rationing behaviorCredit rationing constraint the credit resources on real estate industryIt leads to imbalance between investment and consumption,which then causes structural distortions in supply and demand and fluctuations of real estate market in turn Furthermore,Credit rationing restricts the result of monetary policy,further amplifying the effect of fluctuations in real estate marketBy constructing the credit rationing model,this paper calculates the change trend of the credit rationing in commercial banks and its impact on the real estate market in different periodsEmpirical result indicates that there is significant correlation between the variation of credit rationing degree and the real estate market volatilityOn the one hand,credit rationing constraints path dependence of real estate output,which affects investment and consumption structure in the real estate marketOn the other hand,credit rationing controls effects of fiscal policies and quantitative monetary policiesAccording to those findings,this paper puts forward method of weaken the position of Commercial bank and extending credit supplying institution to restrict the negative impact of credit rationing on the development of the real estate market

Key words: credit rationing , fluctuation in real estate industry , real estate industry regulation , threshold model