关键词: 国际资本流动 , 突然停止 , 消费平滑 , 最优外汇储备

Abstract:

 Foreign exchange reserves are important for smoothing consumption and promoting social welfare. Along with this logic, this paper constructs a threesector model based on JR model to explore the foreign reserve holding behavior of the monetary authorities and estimate the optimal foreign exchange reserves of the monetary authorities to smooth consumption fluctuations in case of sudden stops. Empirical results show that Chinas static optimal reserve is about 19.26% of its GDP; Chinas actual reserve has exceeded the optimal reserve since 2002 with the gap between actual and optimal reserve is expanding. Chinas optimal reserve has a positive correlation with the probability of sudden stops, output loss, private and public shortterm debt, private saving and replacement ratio in sudden stops, and degree of risk aversion. It has a negative relationship with banks cash reserve ratio and risk premium. Monetary authorities can save foreign exchange reserves by increasing cash reserve ratio and control residents replacement ratio. While in the long run, Control the scale of domestic shortterm external debt and ensure the robustness of commercial banks is the key to dealing with risks.

Key words: international capital flow , sudden stops , consumption smoothing , optimal foreign exchange reserves