关键词: 投入产出分析 , 增速换挡 , 需求结构

Abstract:

The effects of final demand and its induced industries on total output growth are compared and analyzed based on noncompetitive inputoutput data over 1955—2011 of Japan and over 1987—2012 of China. The trend of demand dynamics of Japans economy is examined from high growth phase to medium growth phase, then to falter economy phase which includes two growth pace changes. In the transformation to mediumhigh growth phase of China, it casts a light on as follows: (1) Consumption will be the primary driver of economic growth as a stable factor, but has a declining trend of pulling effect. The development of circulation service industry and industrial and commercial service industry should be focused on firstly, while traditional manufacturing industry and machinery manufacturing industry should be upgraded. (2)The role of investment is still of great importance to mediumhigh growth. The importance of machinery manufacturing industry to investment is increasing, while the importance of infrastructure industry to investment is decreasing. (3)The importance of exports to Chinas economy will have a pullback, but there is still much room for exports to grow. The international competitiveness of machinery manufacturing industry and chemical industry should be promoted.

Key words:  inputoutput analysis , the change of pace in economic growth , demand structure