关键词: 产能过剩 , 测度 , 产能利用率 , 协整法 , 随机前沿生产函数法

Abstract: This paper used the cointegration method and the stochastic frontier production function to measure industrial capacity utilization of Chinas 30 provinces in 2001—2011，and empirically decomposed the effects of different factors on the capacity utilizationThe study found as followsFirst，the two methods of the regional industrial capacity utilization are basically identicalSecond，the change of capacity utilization shows obvious economic cycle characteristicsThird，the capacity utilization of the eastern region is lower than the central and western regionsFourth，Chinas risk of excess capacity is spreading from the local to the countryAfter examining regional inventory as well as economic benefit index，30 provinces could be divided into three types which are certainty excess，possibility excess and underlying excess risk

Key words: excess capacity , measurement , capacity utilization , cointegration method , stochastic frontier production function