关键词: 通胀预期管理 , 货币政策 , 前瞻性引导 , 新凯恩斯主义DSGE模型

Abstract: The paper summarized the formation and evolution of the theory of management of expectation on the basis of the perspective of monetary policy,and discussed the implication for the management of inflation expectationThe literature review showed that the theory of management of expectation focused on the credibility of monetary policy and experienced from the swing between rules and discretion to the combination of policy commitment with the communication of central bank and the formation of forward guidanceThe introduction of various kinds of thoughts of management of expectation promoted the time consistency of policy and increased the accuracy of expectations of the public by the imposition of various kinds of constraints on monetary policyThere were several important directions of future research on the theory of management of expectation: the construction of the framework on the basis of NewKeynesian DSGE models,the improvement of the model structure by the representative of the formation of expectation mechanism and the modeling structure of the financial system,and the application of mechanism design to advance the framework of monetary policyTo the management of inflation expectation in China,the government should speed up financial reform by the representative of the marketoriented reform of interest rate and exchange rate,strengthen the price stability as core of monetary policy adjustment,sharpen the firm stance of antiinflation and form the nominal anchor by representative of the inflation target by the effective balance of the stability of economic growth,the adjustment of economic structure and antiinflationMeanwhile,the government should construct the framework of the macroprudential management which both stabilized the price and finance system,and build the new Keynesian DSGE model with the Chinese characteristics to enhance the credibility of the management of expectation

Key words: management of inflation expectation , monetary policy , forward guidance , new-Keynesian DSGE model