经济理论与经济管理 ›› 2014, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (8): 31-42.

• 理论探索 • 上一篇    下一篇

政府消费规模对经济增长的阈值效应

杜焱   

  1. 中南大学商学院 , 长沙410205
  • 收稿日期:2014-06-20 出版日期:2014-08-16 发布日期:2014-08-19
  • 作者简介:杜焱(1975—),男,湖南常宁人,中南大学商学院博士研究生,湖南商学院副教授。
  • 基金资助:

    国家社会科学基金青年项目(11CJY020);国家自然科学基金面上项目(71373075);湖南省社会科学基金基地项目(12JDZ19)

THE THRESHOLD EFFECT OF GOVERNMENT
CONSUMPTION SCALE ON ECONOMIC GROWTH

 DU  Yan   

  1. Business School,Central South University,Changsha 410205,China
  • Received:2014-06-20 Online:2014-08-16 Published:2014-08-19

摘要: 揭示政府消费规模对经济增长的效应变化是合理调控政府消费规模和有效配置政府公共资源的重要依据。本文利用1978—2011年的数据,运用阈值协整模型对我国政府消费规模与经济增长关系进行了实证研究。本文发现,二者存在阈值协整关系,且政府消费规模对经济增长的效应始终为负,当政府消费占GDP的比重下降至0178 2(1978—1986年),政府消费规模对经济增长的促进效应较小;当政府消费占GDP比重下降至0178 2(1987年左右),政府消费规模对经济增长的效应发生非线性转移;随着政府消费规模的进一步降低(1996—2011年),政府消费规模对经济增长的促进效应显著加强。实证结论表明,不断压缩政府消费规模有助于经济效率提升,尤其是将政府消费规模合理控制在临界值0178 2以下,可以更好地发挥政府消费对经济增长的促进作用。

关键词: 政府消费规模 , 经济增长 , 阈值效应 , 政府消费管理

Abstract: Revealing the variation of effect of government consumption scale on economic growth was an important basis for reasonable regulating of government consumption scale and allocating of government public resourcesBy using the 1978—2011 data,and using threshold cointegration model for empirical research on the relationship between government consumption scale and economic growth,this paper found there existed threshold cointegration relation between government consumption scale and economic growth,and the effect of government consumption scale on the economic growth was always negativeWhen the proportion of the government consumption account for GDP declined to 01782 previously in the period of 1978—1986,the promotion effect of government consumption scale on economic growth was smallerWhen the proportion of the government consumption account for GDP fell to 01782 around 1987,the effect of government consumption scale on economic growth took place nonlinear transferWith further reducing government consumption scale,the promoting effect of government consumption scale on economic growth was significantly strengthened from 1996—2011The empirical results showed continuously compressing the government consumption scale would improve economic efficiency,especially when the government consumption scale being controlled below critical value 01782,the role of government consumption promoting economic growth would get stronger

Key words: government consumption scale , economic growth , threshold effect , government consumption management