OPEC策略行为理论研究评述

经济理论与经济管理 ›› 2014, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (2): 50-58.

OPEC策略行为理论研究评述

朱彤

中国社会科学院工业经济研究所，北京100836

收稿日期:2013-11-28 出版日期:2014-02-16 发布日期:2014-02-28
作者简介:朱彤（1970—），男，贵州玉屏人，中国社会科学院工业经济研究所副研究员，能源经济室主任，经济学博士。

LITERATURE REVIEW ON THE MODEL OF OPEC’S BEHAVIOR

ZHU Tong

Institute of Industrial Economics, CASS, Beijing 100836, China

Received:2013-11-28 Online:2014-02-16 Published:2014-02-28

摘要/Abstract

摘要： OPEC策略行为理论是石油经济学研究的两大主题之一。本文在梳理20世纪70年代以来大量相关研究文献基础上，对OPEC策略行为理论的发展脉络、经典模型以及对经典模型的实证检验研究进行了较为全面分析。分析发现，虽然描述OPEC行为的模型越来越精细，但由于OPEC及其成员在不同时期策略行为方式和重点不同，每种模型只能解释部分时期的部分行为。OPEC对国际石油价格的影响主要体现在短期，长期看国际石油价格主要反映市场基本面变化。

关键词: OPEC , 策略行为

Abstract: The theory of OPEC’s behavior is one of the two main themes of petroleum economics. Based on a large number of relevant research literature since the 1970s, this paper reviews the clues of OPECs behavioral theory, the classic models, and compares the methods and conclusions of empirical researches. The author indicates that, although the models described OPECs behavior have been more sophisticated, each model could only explain a part of OPECs behavior in some period, because OPEC and its members use different strategies at different times. OPEC and its members have obvious shortterm impact on oil price. However, oil price mainly reflects the changes in market fundamentals in the long term.

Key words: OPEC , strategic behavior

朱彤. OPEC策略行为理论研究评述[J]. 经济理论与经济管理, 2014, 34(2): 50-58.

ZHU Tong. LITERATURE REVIEW ON THE MODEL OF OPEC’S BEHAVIOR[J]. Economic Theory and Business Management, 2014, 34(2): 50-58.