关键词: 外部冲击 , 通货膨胀 , 扩展的菲利普斯曲线 , VAR模型

Abstract: Based on the three external factors (3F), global inflation rate, the international energy price and the international food price, this paper uses the Extended Phillips Curve to study the longterm relationship between the external shock and the inflation rate of China, and analyzes effect generated by these external shock factors by using VAR model Our results show that: in the short run, the global inflation is the main driving force for the rise of the domestic price level With the time passing, the impact of the international energy prices and international food prices gradually increases But in the long run, the adaptive expectations of the inflation and the output gap are the most important determinants of the price rise Therefore, in order to withstand the external shocks to the inflation of China, the government should manage the inflation expectation, construct the relative price buffer mechanism, and diversify the import channels of the agricultural product At the same time, the government should also control economic growth rate to prevent the inflation generated by the excessive investment

Key words: external shock , inflation , extended Phillips curve , VAR model