我国金融状况指数的测算与检验

经济理论与经济管理 ›› 2013, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (4): 51-58.

我国金融状况指数的测算与检验

文青

中国人民银行成都分行，成都610041

收稿日期:2012-12-30 出版日期:2013-04-16 发布日期:2013-05-06
作者简介:文青（1977—），男，重庆市人，中国人民银行成都分行职员，经济学博士。

A MEASURE OF FCI IN CHINA

WEN Qing

Chengdu Branch,The People's Bank of China,Chengdu 610041,China

Received:2012-12-30 Online:2013-04-16 Published:2013-05-06

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 近十年来，部分国家央行和国际组织综合运用多种计量经济模型，力求编制能够客观衡量一国整体金融形势的金融状况指数（FCI）。本文运用总需求方程缩减式模型对我国FCI进行了测算和效用检验。结果表明，与任何单一变量相比，FCI更能有效捕捉我国金融运行状况和预测未来经济走势，可以成为中央银行货币政策决策的重要指示器。

关键词: 金融状况指数 , 总需求方程缩减式 , 效用检验

Abstract: Over the past decade,some national central banks and international organizations applied a variety of econometric models,and strived to establish the financial conditions index (FCI) to measure a country's financial situation. In this paper,on the basis of fully consider China's economic and financial condition,the aggregate demand equation reduced-model initially built in China FCI. The results showed that,compared with any single variable,FCI was more effective to capture China's financial condition and to forecast future economic trends,which could become important reference for the central banks monetary policy decisions.

Key words: FCI , AD equation , function test

文青. 我国金融状况指数的测算与检验[J]. 经济理论与经济管理, 2013, 33(4): 51-58.

WEN Qing. A MEASURE OF FCI IN CHINA[J]. Economic Theory and Business Management, 2013, 33(4): 51-58.