中国资产短缺状况研究

经济理论与经济管理 ›› 2013, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (2): 31-42.

中国资产短缺状况研究

范从来,刘绍保,刘德溯

南京大学商学院

收稿日期:2012-11-27 出版日期:2013-02-20 发布日期:2013-03-05
作者简介:范从来（1962—），男，江苏南通人，南京大学商学院常务副院长，博士生导师，教育部长江学者特聘教授；刘绍保（1968—），男，安徽巢湖人，南京大学商学院博士研究生；刘德溯（1977—），男，福建泉州人，南京大学商学院讲师，经济学博士。
基金资助:
国家社会科学基金重点项目（11AJL003）

A RE-ESTIMATION ON CHINA'S ASSETS SHORTAGE

FAN Cong-Lai,LIU Shao-Bao,LIU De-Su

School of business, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, China

Received:2012-11-27 Online:2013-02-20 Published:2013-03-05

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 本文通过“CI指数”法对中国的资产短缺状况进行估算。研究表明，早在2000年，中国就已进入到资产短缺阶段。该期间部分时期内，中国的资产短缺状况虽有所逆转，但这更多的是源于项目追加贷款、各微观经济主体大幅增持短期存款、国内国民储蓄增幅有限甚至下降、资本跨国流入逆转所致。进一步研究发现，刺破资产泡沫所面临的风险以及对微观主体过度冒险行为干预能力的不足，要求政府短期内应实施“泡沫分类管理”措施来积极应对因资产短缺引起的资产泡沫。

关键词: 资产短缺 , 资产泡沫 , 泡沫分类, 泡沫管理

Abstract: This paper re-estimatedthe Chineseassets shortage by the method of the modified C-I index. This study indicated that China had already entered the assetshortage stage as early as 2000. Although the extent of China's assets shortage was reversedduring the only periods, this originated mainly from additional project loans, from that microeconomic entities held additional shortterm deposits, from that national savings increases slightly or even declines, and from that transnational capital was from original inflow into outflow.Further study found that the risks faced for piercing assets bubbles and the lack of capacity to intervene with excessive risk-taking behavior of agents, which required that government should respond actively to the asset bubbles caused by assets shortage combined with implementing bubbles classification management in the short term.

Key words: assets shortage , assets bubbles , bubbles classification , bubbles management

范从来,刘绍保,刘德溯. 中国资产短缺状况研究[J]. 经济理论与经济管理, 2013, 33(2): 31-42.

FAN Cong-Lai,LIU Shao-Bao,LIU De-Su.
A RE-ESTIMATION ON CHINA'S ASSETS SHORTAGE[J]. Economic Theory and Business Management, 2013, 33(2): 31-42.