关键词: 国债依存度 , 国债负担率 , 国债偿债率 , 时间指数模型 , ARMA模型 , KMV模型

Abstract: As a primary resource for raising financial fund, balancing financial budget and supplying financial deficit, public debt has provided a strong support for the overall national economy and macroeconomic control. However, in the past two decades, the issuance of national debt has grown rapidly in order to avoid potential risk involved in this debt. It is crucial to keep the debt in a certain range. This paper tries to make judgment about the present scale of national debt through both theoretical and empirical analyses. After discussing the past situation of the three indexes and the precise analysis through time function model, ARMA model and KMV model, we believes that the current scale of national debt has exceeded safe range and contains potential risks. In order to reverse the trend and promote the national economy, it is necessary to take certain measures because it will not only stimulate the national debt market but also protect the national economy.

Key words: rate of burden , degree of dependence , rate of compensation , time function model , ARMA model , KMV model